When is an illegal conflict morally defensible?

japantimes.co.jp·Gareth Evans
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Elevated — multiple influence tactics active

This article tries to convince you that while the U.S. and Israeli actions against Iran might break international law, they could still be considered "morally defensible." It does this by creating a sense of urgency about global instability and focusing on the idea that sometimes what's "legitimate" can be more important than what's strictly legal. However, it leaves out crucial details about why these specific actions against Iran might be morally right, given its own admission that Iran wasn't an immediate threat, and also ignores the long history of conflict that led to this situation.

FATE Analysis

Four dimensions of psychological manipulation: how content captures Focus, exploits Authority, triggers Tribal identity, and engineers Emotion.

Focus4/10Authority3/10Tribe5/10Emotion6/10
FFocus
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AAuthority
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TTribe
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EEmotion
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Focus signals

unprecedented framing
"The question of whether the joint U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is one such case demands more attention than it has received so far."

This attempts to frame the ongoing situation as something overlooked and deserving of urgent, novel consideration, suggesting a gap in public understanding the article aims to fill.

novelty spike
"The collapse of whatever is left of the rules-based order is bad news for the rest of the world. It demands concerted pushback from capable middle powers, as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney compellingly argued in his landmark Davos speech in January."

The phrase 'collapse of whatever is left of the rules-based order' uses dramatic language to create a sense of critical, rapidly changing events, demanding immediate attention due to its unprecedented nature.

Authority signals

expert appeal
"as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney compellingly argued in his landmark Davos speech in January."

The article cites a 'landmark speech' by 'Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney' (though Mark Carney was never a Prime Minister, but a Governor of the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, indicating potential misattribution to bolster perceived authority) and presents his argument as 'compelling,' using the association with a high-profile figure to lend weight to the call for 'concerted pushback.'

Tribe signals

us vs them
"It should be beyond dispute that the initiation of this war by U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flagrantly violated international law, even if many of their allies have shown a willingness to fudge this issue."

This creates an 'us vs. them' dynamic by framing the actions of Trump and Netanyahu as indisputably illegal, implicitly aligning the reader with those who uphold international law and contrasting them with 'their allies' who are willing to 'fudge' the issue, thereby manufacturing a moral divide.

us vs them
"The attack is just the latest in a series of actions by the world’s most powerful countries — including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s militarization of the South China Sea and America’s seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro — that disdain international law. The collapse of whatever is left of the rules-based order is bad news for the rest of the world. It demands concerted pushback from capable middle powers..."

This passage clearly delineates 'the world’s most powerful countries' (as antagonists) who 'disdain international law' against 'the rest of the world' and 'capable middle powers' (as protagonists or victims/rescuers), effectively weaponizing the concept of adherence to international law as a tribal marker and fostering an 'us vs. them' narrative.

Emotion signals

outrage manufacturing
"It should be beyond dispute that the initiation of this war by U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flagrantly violated international law..."

The strong phrasing 'beyond dispute' and 'flagrantly violated' are designed to evoke indignation and outrage at the perceived clear and egregious breach of international norms by powerful leaders, framing their actions as unequivocally wrong.

fear engineering
"The collapse of whatever is left of the rules-based order is bad news for the rest of the world."

This statement uses catastrophic language ('collapse of whatever is left... bad news for the rest of the world') to instill a sense of fear and urgency regarding the stability of global order, suggesting widespread negative implications for all.

urgency
"It demands concerted pushback from capable middle powers..."

The word 'demands' creates a sense of urgent necessity and a call to action, amplifying the emotional weight of the perceived crisis and compelling readers to feel that immediate intervention is required.

Narrative Analysis (PCP)

How the article reshapes thinking: Perception (what beliefs are targeted), Context (what information is shifted or omitted), and Permission (what behavior is being encouraged).

What it wants you to believe

The article aims to instill the belief that the U.S.-Israeli actions against Iran, despite being 'manifestly illegal' under international law, might be 'morally defensible' under certain circumstances. It seeks to establish that the concept of 'legitimacy trumping legality' is a valid, albeit rare, consideration in international relations.

Context being shifted

The article introduces the legal-moral dilemma ('legitimacy trumping legality') as a valid framework for evaluating international actions, shifting the reader's judgment from a purely legal one to a more permissive moral one. This makes the question of the U.S.-Israeli actions being 'morally defensible' feel like a legitimate consideration, rather than a foregone conclusion of illegality.

What it omits

The article explicitly states that 'Iran did not pose a threat to either country... of an imminence or on a scale that could possibly justify... preemptive military action.' By then immediately pivoting to 'the question of whether the joint U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is one such case [where legitimacy trumps legality] demands more attention', it omits context regarding the specific moral justifications or evidence that would make an illegal act 'morally defensible' in *this particular instance*. It posits the question without offering specific moral arguments that could counter the admitted illegality, creating a void ready to be filled by the reader's own interpretation or further argument, rather than by facts presented in the article. It also omits the long-standing, well-documented history of U.S. and Israeli intelligence operations, sanctions, and proxy conflicts with Iran that provide a fuller picture of the 'war' it mentions, instead framing it as a sudden 'initiation of this war'.

Desired behavior

The article implicitly grants permission to consider extra-legal justifications for military action, encouraging readers to question the strict application of international law when faced with perceived moral imperatives. It encourages a nuanced, perhaps even apologetic, view of the 'illegal' actions, inviting the reader to delve deeper into the moral 'defensibility' rather than condemning the illegality outright. It also encourages a sense of urgency for 'concerted pushback from capable middle powers' regarding the collapse of the 'rules-based order'.

SMRP Pattern

Four manipulation maintenance tactics: Socializing the idea as normal, Minimizing concerns, Rationalizing with logic, and Projecting blame.

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Socializing

"In international relations, manifestly illegal government action can sometimes be morally defensible. While historical examples of legitimacy trumping legality are few and far between, they do exist. The question of whether the joint U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is one such case demands more attention than it has received so far."

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Minimizing
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Rationalizing
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Projecting

Red Flags

High-severity indicators: silencing dissent, coordinated messaging, or weaponizing identity to shut down debate.

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Silencing indicator
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Controlled release (spokesperson test)
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Identity weaponization

Techniques Found(3)

Specific propaganda techniques identified using the SemEval-2023 academic taxonomy of 23 techniques across 6 categories.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"Trump and Netanyahu’s war in Iran is struggling for moral legitimacy."

The term 'war in Iran' is highly charged and implies an active, declared military conflict, which significantly exaggerates the diplomatic tensions and sanctions that have characterized the situation between the US/Israel and Iran. This phrasing is designed to evoke strong negative emotions and frame the situation as already violent and illegitimate.

Causal OversimplificationSimplification
"The United States and Israel acted when they did not because of Iran’s strength, but because of its relative weakness."

This statement simplifies a complex geopolitical situation, reducing the motivations behind US and Israeli actions to a single, oversimplified cause: Iran's 'relative weakness.' It ignores numerous other potential factors, such as regional power dynamics, perceived threats, internal political considerations, and previous actions by Iran.

Appeal to AuthorityJustification
"It demands concerted pushback from capable middle powers, as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney compellingly argued in his landmark Davos speech in January."

The article uses Mark Carney's statement in a 'landmark Davos speech' as an appeal to authority to support its call for 'concerted pushback.' While citing an expert is not inherently problematic, here it's used to lend weight to the article's proposed course of action without further developing the specific arguments Carney made or offering independent evidence for the necessity of such pushback.

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