What to know about the challenges of reopening the Strait of Hormuz

theglobeandmail.com·John Leicester
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Noticeable — persuasion techniques worth noting

This article tries to convince you that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, caused by Iranian actions, is directly responsible for rising gas prices and global economic chaos. It uses military experts and officials to suggest that the only way to fix this is through military intervention, specifically warship escorts, once fighting stops. The article also encourages you to see military action, including potential preemptive strikes against Iran, as a necessary step for economic stability, drawing parallels to naval operations in the Red Sea.

FATE Analysis

Four dimensions of psychological manipulation: how content captures Focus, exploits Authority, triggers Tribal identity, and engineers Emotion.

Focus3/10Authority6/10Tribe3/10Emotion6/10
FFocus
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AAuthority
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TTribe
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EEmotion
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Focus signals

unprecedented framing
"now effectively closed"

This phrase creates a sense of urgent and unprecedented crisis, framing the closure as a significant and immediate threat regardless of its actual complete closure.

unprecedented framing
"governments are working on blueprints to speedily reopen it to shipping when the shooting stops."

This implies an extraordinary, immediate, and high-level global response to an unprecedented situation, capturing attention through the magnitude of the claimed event.

attention capture
"Gasoline prices are rising largely because of the Iran war’s impact on the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passageway for oil and gas from the Persian Gulf."

Immediately links a broad, impactful economic issue (gasoline prices) to the Strait of Hormuz, making the crisis personal and attention-grabbing for many readers.

Authority signals

expert appeal
"Former naval officers who have served in the Hormuz passage say vessels would be sitting ducks..."

Leverages the perceived authority and specialized experience of former naval officers to validate the danger of the situation and the difficulty of military intervention.

expert appeal
"“In today’s context, sending warships or civilian vessels into the Strait of Hormuz would be suicidal,” French navy retired Vice Adm. Pascal Ausseur said in an interview with The Associated Press."

Uses the strong, definitive statement from a high-ranking retired military official to shut down alternative solutions and establish the extreme risk.

expert appeal
"A ceasefire agreement with Iran “would make the situation shift from suicidal to dangerous. At that point, military ships could be deployed. And then escort operations could begin,” he said."

Continues to use the retired Vice Admiral's perceived expertise to dictate the conditions under which military action might be feasible, lending weight to the article's proposed timeline.

expert appeal
"French retired Vice Adm. Michel Olhagaray, a former head of France’s centre for higher military studies, says that “all navies learned a great deal” about working together..."

Utilizes another senior retired military officer's credentials to lend credibility to claims about military preparedness and cooperation, enhancing the persuasive power of the article's analysis.

institutional authority
"according to mapping by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency."

References a governmental intelligence agency to provide authoritative backing for claims about Iran's military capabilities, making the threat seem more credible and official.

expert appeal
"Experts say another challenge will be reassuring shipping insurers and companies that navigating in Hormuz waters is feasible again."

Broadly cites 'experts' without specific names to convey a general consensus among knowledgeable individuals, adding weight to the difficulty of reopening the strait for commercial shipping.

expert appeal
"“Maritime traffic is a business. That business has to make money. If insurance costs are so high that you can’t make a profit by sailing through a given area, then you don’t sail through that area,” said Ausseur, now a director of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies, a think tank."

Re-introduces a previously cited high-ranking authority figure, now with an additional institutional affiliation (think tank director), to deepen the persuasive impact of economic arguments.

Tribe signals

us vs them
"French, American, British and other naval crews already have valuable experience of fighting off missiles and drones in the region."

Establishes a 'us' (Western allied navies) dynamic against an implied 'them' (Iran-backed Houthis/Iran itself), framing the conflict in terms of allied defense against aggression.

us vs them
"Iran is militarily far better equipped than its Houthi proxies in Yemen, which caused considerable damage and disruption..."

Clearly delineates 'Iran' and its 'Houthi proxies' as a collective 'them' against which the 'us' (global economy, allied forces) is struggling, reinforcing an adversarial tribal division.

Emotion signals

fear engineering
"Gasoline prices are rising largely because of the Iran war’s impact on the Strait of Hormuz..."

Generates fear by linking a distant geopolitical conflict directly to a tangible, everyday economic impact (rising gas prices) that affects the reader directly.

fear engineering
"“In today’s context, sending warships or civilian vessels into the Strait of Hormuz would be suicidal,” French navy retired Vice Adm. Pascal Ausseur said..."

Uses extremely strong, dramatic language ('suicidal') to evoke a powerful sense of fear and desperation regarding the severity of the situation and the danger involved.

fear engineering
"The ship’s commander at the time, Capt. Jérôme Henry, told the AP that being on the receiving end of the potentially deadly strikes was unnerving and exhausting."

Evokes fear and empathy by describing the stressful and 'unnerving' personal experience of military personnel under attack, highlighting the danger faced by 'our' forces.

fear engineering
"Iran is militarily far better equipped than its Houthi proxies in Yemen, which caused considerable damage and disruption in the Red Sea between November 2023 and January 2025."

Builds on prior fear of Houthi actions, then ramps up the anxiety by explicitly stating Iran is 'far better equipped,' implying a much greater and more terrifying threat.

fear engineering
"With war raging, the Hormuz passage is “very, very dangerous” and the risks for shipping are “much greater” than in the Red Sea against the Houthis, Olhagaray said."

Directly employs highly emotional and alarming terms ('very, very dangerous,' 'much greater risks') to significantly heighten the sense of peril and urgency surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

urgency
"“That will not happen at all – not at all – in the near future.”"

Uses repetitive, emphatic negative phrasing to convey a sense of hopeless finality and delay, inducing a feeling of prolonged crisis and urgency for a solution.

Narrative Analysis (PCP)

How the article reshapes thinking: Perception (what beliefs are targeted), Context (what information is shifted or omitted), and Permission (what behavior is being encouraged).

What it wants you to believe

The article aims to instill the belief that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a direct and impactful consequence of Iranian aggression, directly causing rising gasoline prices and global economic disruption. It targets the belief that military intervention, specifically through naval escorts, is the primary and perhaps only viable solution to reopen the strait, assuming a "cessation of hostilities" first. It intends for the reader to believe that the Red Sea experience provides valuable, transferable lessons for a future, more intense conflict in Hormuz.

Context being shifted

The article shifts the context from a nuanced geopolitical conflict to a purely transactional 'problem-solution' framed around oil flow and shipping safety. It centers the discussion on the technical challenges and military solutions for reopening the strait, making military deployment and potential confrontation feel like a rational and inevitable step once 'conditions permit.'

What it omits

The article omits deeper geopolitical context regarding the historical grievances, motivations, or broader objectives of Iran's actions, or the role of other regional and international actors in the current 'Iran war' beyond European and US efforts to unblock the strait. It also omits detailed alternative solutions to secure oil supplies or mitigate price increases that do not involve military escort, such as diplomatic resolutions or energy policy changes. The specific nature or origin of the 'Iran war' is vaguely referenced but not elaborated upon, leaving the reader to infer its characteristics.

Desired behavior

The article implicitly grants permission for the reader to accept the necessity of military planning and potential military action to secure the Strait of Hormuz. It encourages the reader to view future military deployments and even preemptive strikes against Iranian military installations as a justifiable, though dangerous, precursor to economic stability (lower gasoline prices).

SMRP Pattern

Four manipulation maintenance tactics: Socializing the idea as normal, Minimizing concerns, Rationalizing with logic, and Projecting blame.

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Socializing
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Minimizing
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Rationalizing
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Projecting

"Gasoline prices are rising largely because of the Iran war’s impact on the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passageway for oil and gas from the Persian Gulf."

Red Flags

High-severity indicators: silencing dissent, coordinated messaging, or weaponizing identity to shut down debate.

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Silencing indicator
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Controlled release (spokesperson test)

"French President Emmanuel Macron is leading an international effort to unblock the energy chokepoint, so that oil, gas and goods could flow freely again 'when circumstances permit.' He envisions countries using warships to escort tankers and container vessels through the strait when fighting is less intense, whenever that may be. ...Former naval officers who have served in the Hormuz passage say vessels would be sitting ducks... 'In today’s context, sending warships or civilian vessels into the Strait of Hormuz would be suicidal,' French navy retired Vice Adm. Pascal Ausseur said in an interview with The Associated Press. A ceasefire agreement with Iran 'would make the situation shift from suicidal to dangerous. At that point, military ships could be deployed. And then escort operations could begin,' he said."

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Identity weaponization

Techniques Found(3)

Specific propaganda techniques identified using the SemEval-2023 academic taxonomy of 23 techniques across 6 categories.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"Gasoline prices are rising largely because of the Iran war’s impact on the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passageway for oil and gas from the Persian Gulf. The waterway off Iran’s coast, now effectively closed, is so vital for the global economy that governments are working on blueprints to speedily reopen it to shipping when the shooting stops."

The phrase 'now effectively closed' uses strong, definitive language to suggest a complete and impactful closure of the Strait, which may be an overstatement given the immediate context of rising gas prices and governments 'working on blueprints' rather than an immediate, total cessation of all passage. The subsequent explanation that it's 'so vital' further enhances the sense of alarm and immediate, significant impact due to this 'closure'.

Exaggeration/MinimisationManipulative Wording
"Former naval officers who have served in the Hormuz passage say vessels would be sitting ducks, with little room for manoeuvre in the strait’s narrow shipping lanes, if foreign naval forces attempted to reopen the waterway before a cessation of hostilities.“In today’s context, sending warships or civilian vessels into the Strait of Hormuz would be suicidal,” French navy retired Vice Adm. Pascal Ausseur said in an interview with The Associated Press."

The phrase 'sitting ducks' and the declaration that sending vessels would be 'suicidal' are vivid and emphatic descriptions that exaggerate the danger to emphasize the extreme risk, rather than offering a more measured assessment. While the situation is undoubtedly dangerous, these terms are hyperbole.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"Iran attacks commercial ships and oil facilities as U.S.-Israeli strikes intensify"

The word 'attacks' immediately assigns aggressive blame to Iran, framing its actions negatively, especially in a headline context, without providing further detail in that specific snippet about the nature or justification of these actions.

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