Trump says he will ‘take’ Cuba’ as it reels from a US blockade. What’s next for the island nation?
Analysis Summary
This article persuades by highlighting the suffering of the Cuban people, using vivid descriptions of scarcity and hardship to evoke strong emotions like fear and outrage. It strengthens its claims by citing authority figures like think tanks and official statements, but it leaves out crucial context about the full impact and specific mechanisms of US policies, making it seem like Cuba's problems are mostly self-inflicted.
Cross-Outlet PSYOP Detected
This article is part of a narrative being pushed across multiple outlets:
FATE Analysis
Four dimensions of psychological manipulation: how content captures Focus, exploits Authority, triggers Tribal identity, and engineers Emotion.
Focus signals
"“I don’t know that there’s ever been a squeeze like there is right now,” Adria Ellis, a photographer in Havana, the Cuban capital, tells us."
This quote frames the current situation as historically severe and potentially unprecedented, creating a novelty spike that grabs attention.
"{...} the current moment appears much more difficult than any time in the last 20-plus years,” says Anna Cristina Pertierra, an anthropologist at the University of Technology, Sydney and a leading Cuba researcher."
Pertierra's statement, confirming the severity of the current situation as worse than recent decades, reinforces the idea of a critical and attention-worthy moment.
"“People are hurting and frustrated. I don’t want to downplay that. But Cubans don’t panic.” Bottom line, suggests Urszula Abolik: “They are not afraid, but they think Cuba has reached the bottom, they think that only good things can happen now.”"
The idea that 'Cuba has reached the bottom' and 'only good things can happen now' suggests a critical turning point, leveraging attention through a sense of climax or impending change.
Authority signals
"The Cuban Observatory for Human Rights, a think tank, last year observed that 89 per cent of Cuba’s 11 million people were living in extreme poverty."
The article uses the 'Cuban Observatory for Human Rights, a think tank,' to lend academic and objective authority to a striking statistic about extreme poverty. While a direct quote, the author chose to present this specific, non-attributable data point from an institutional source to add weight.
"“It would be hard to find a moment in modern Cuban history where everyday life was easy but, certainly, looking back, we can say now that the current moment appears much more difficult than any time in the last 20-plus years,” says Anna Cristina Pertierra, an anthropologist at the University of Technology, Sydney and a leading Cuba researcher."
The credentials of Anna Cristina Pertierra ('anthropologist at the University of Technology, Sydney and a leading Cuba researcher') are explicitly stated to bolster the credibility of her assessment regarding the severity of the current crisis.
"“They still call themselves a communist government, but it’s sort of a hybrid economy that relies on foreign currency from tourism,” explains James Trapani, a history lecturer at Western Sydney University with a special interest in US foreign policy in Latin America."
James Trapani's academic title ('history lecturer at Western Sydney University with a special interest in US foreign policy in Latin America') is used to add scholarly weight to his analysis of Cuba's economic system.
"A typical monthly salary (in the public sector) is between 6000 and 8000 pesos, according to the Havana Times, an independent news site."
The 'Havana Times, an independent news site,' is cited to provide an authoritative figure for typical salaries, lending factual weight to the economic hardship descriptions.
"“Cuba has been a general annoyance to the United States,” notes James Trapani, “because Cuba historically has funded anti-American activity, not just in Latin America, but in other parts of the world.”"
James Trapani is cited again, with his academic background implicitly lending authority to his interpretation of Cuba's historical role in international affairs.
"He is not widely popular, Ted Henken, a Cuba scholar told The New York Times in January. “Cubans associate him with the crisis of the last five years.”"
The article relies on 'Ted Henken, a Cuba scholar' who was quoted in 'The New York Times' to provide an authoritative assessment of President Diaz-Canel's popularity, indirectly leveraging the authority of both the scholar and the reputable news organization.
Tribe signals
"Life in communist Cuba has never been exactly luxurious. The Libreta de Abastecimiento (or “supplies booklet”), introduced by Marxist leader Fidel Castro in 1962, once guaranteed households enough to live on, more or less: allowances of eggs, pasta, cooking oil, sugar, white rice, black beans, bread and coffee, plus extra for pregnant women, children and the elderly (with perhaps a tot of rum on your birthday)."
This opening establishes an 'us' (the presumably capitalist, freedom-loving reader) vs. 'them' (communist Cuba) dynamic by implicitly contrasting a system associated with privation with the reader's likely background.
"Why Trump was so energised to strike Venezuela has never been entirely clear. He initially claimed it was about stopping a drug trade but later made comments about oil. US companies had invested heavily in Venezuela before it nationalised its industry in the early 1970s. “Venezuela unilaterally seized and stole American oil, American assets and American platforms, costing us billions and billions of dollars,” Trump claimed."
The quote from Trump, '“Venezuela unilaterally seized and stole American oil, American assets and American platforms, costing us billions and billions of dollars,” Trump claimed,' constructs a clear 'us' (Americans/US companies) vs. 'them' (Venezuelan nationalization) narrative, framing the situation as an economic affront to American interests.
"Removing Maduro, meanwhile, has offered the US an opportunity to settle an old score with Cuba."
This statement explicitly frames the US actions as an opportunity to 'settle an old score' with Cuba, reinforcing an existing antagonistic 'us vs. them' dynamic between the two nations.
"Many Cuban migrants, or children of migrants, numbering a total 2.5 million (some half of whom live in Florida), see themselves as political exiles and are a vocal and influential political force in the US."
This highlights a significant Cuban-American population in the US, framing their identity as 'political exiles' who are a 'vocal and influential political force.' This creates an implicit tribal division between this group (and presumably American readers who empathize with them) and the Cuban government.
"He said Cuba supported terrorist groups including Hamas, hosted Russian and Chinese intelligence operations, tortured political opponents and denied the Cuban people free speech and press (although he did not provide evidence to support his claims)."
The claims made by Trump, even with the caveat of lacking evidence, paint Cuba as an antithetical and dangerous 'other' supporting 'terrorist groups,' 'Russian and Chinese intelligence,' and suppressing human rights, intensifying the 'us vs. them' dynamic (US values/security vs. Cuban threats).
"A popular movement to resist US interests emerged, led by Marxist revolutionaries Fidel Castro and the Argentinian Ernesto “Che” Guevara under the rallying cry “Cuba Sí, Yanquis No”, which needs no translation."
The historical rallying cry 'Cuba Sí, Yanquis No' is presented as self-evident in its meaning, immediately establishing a powerful 'us vs. them' identity (Cuban national identity vs. American influence), weaponizing national and ideological identities for the reader.
"“Cuba has been a general annoyance to the United States,” notes James Trapani, “because Cuba historically has funded anti-American activity, not just in Latin America, but in other parts of the world.”"
Trapani's quote explicitly designates Cuba as an 'annoyance' and a source of 'anti-American activity,' further consolidating the perception of Cuba as an adversary in an 'us vs. them' framework.
Emotion signals
"Today, though, shelves at government shops are now often bare, and the system will reportedly soon change to subsidise products for only the most vulnerable. Thanks to the inherent challenges of top-down economic management, hit-and-miss agricultural policies and decades of US sanctions, the Caribbean leftist experiment has hit hard times."
The description of 'bare shelves' and a system reduced to serving 'only the most vulnerable' evokes fear regarding basic necessities and societal collapse. The term 'leftist experiment has hit hard times' adds a sense of grave failure.
"Getting petrol in Cuba can entail a 24-hour queue for a dribble (unless you know a guy who knows a guy). Garbage has piled up in the streets (trucks need fuel), electricity (mostly from creaky, Russian-built oil-fired power stations) is increasingly intermittent, hospitals have paused non-emergency surgeries, schools have skipped classes, internet is sketchy and even water supplies (powered by electric pumps or delivered by truck) can be unreliable."
This detailed list of cascading failures – '24-hour queue for a dribble' of petrol, 'garbage ... piled up,' 'intermittent electricity,' 'hospitals have paused non-emergency surgeries,' 'schools have skipped classes,' 'water supplies ... unreliable' – is designed to create a sense of widespread societal breakdown and fear for daily life.
"On January 3, US special forces struck the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, snatching Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, who were whisked to New York to stand trial on charges of narcoterrorism."
The dramatic language 'snatching Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, who were whisked to New York to stand trial' could be seen as framing the intervention in an emotionally charged way, rather than neutrally describing an arrest.
"Trump quarantined Venezuela’s oil reserves, threatening larger strikes if the government, now headed by former vice president Delcy Rodriguez, did not co-operate. He demanded “total access” for US oil interests and, critically, ceased oil shipments to Cuba, posting to his Truth Social platform: “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.”"
The direct quote from Trump, 'THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,' uses strong, absolute terms ('ZERO,' 'BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE') to create a sense of immediate threat and desperate urgency, designed to evoke fear of impending collapse.
"He said Cuba supported terrorist groups including Hamas, hosted Russian and Chinese intelligence operations, tortured political opponents and denied the Cuban people free speech and press (although he did not provide evidence to support his claims)."
Although the article notes the lack of evidence, merely stating that Trump 'said Cuba supported terrorist groups including Hamas, hosted Russian and Chinese intelligence operations, tortured political opponents and denied the Cuban people free speech and press' is designed to elicit outrage and moral condemnation, even if the claims are unverified.
"“In the early 1990s, with the very rapid withdrawal of support from the USSR, there was a period of acute shortages for food and fuel shortages that generated widespread hunger. And you saw some very significant declines in public health statistics and so on, as a result. But people today are saying that the current moment is even worse.”"
The comparison to the 'Special Period' of 'widespread hunger' and 'declines in public health statistics,' with the added assertion that the 'current moment is even worse,' intensifies fear about the severity and potential consequences of the crisis.
"Without gasoline, workers cannot commute, catch Cuba’s once-ubiquitous buses, operate water pumps, irrigate crops or run back-up generators. Factories are mothballed, radio stations have been off the air. “So many houses don’t have water at all,” Adria Ellis tells us from Havana, where she is documenting the situation, as seen in a social media post below. “Tonight, I watched three different people walking down the street with buckets of water that they’ll take up to their apartments.”"
This comprehensive list of debilitating consequences ('factories are mothballed,' 'radio stations have been off the air,' 'so many houses don’t have water at all,' 'walking down the street with buckets of water') paints a grim picture designed to evoke fear and despair about basic living conditions.
"“My Cuban friends, even if they can find food, can’t afford to buy it; the four resorts in the area I was in are closing down, that’s hundreds of people out of work. My heart breaks for these people.”"
The empathetic quote, 'My heart breaks for these people,' along with the description of inability to afford food and 'hundreds of people out of work,' taps into the reader's emotions of sadness and concern, amplifying the perceived severity of the crisis.
"Brutally colonised by Spain after an expedition led by Christopher Columbus in 1492 (who thought he’d discovered India or the East Indies), many of Cuba’s indigenous “indian” people were slaughtered or died of imported diseases."
The terms 'Brutally colonised' and 'slaughtered or died of imported diseases' are emotionally loaded and evoke outrage at historical injustices, setting a tone of suffering and victimhood early in the historical context.
"Guantanamo is still leased to the US, an accident of history, now notorious, of course, as a detention centre for political prisoners."
Describing Guantanamo as 'notorious, of course, as a detention centre for political prisoners' uses a common perception to trigger outrage and condemnation related to human rights issues.
Narrative Analysis (PCP)
How the article reshapes thinking: Perception (what beliefs are targeted), Context (what information is shifted or omitted), and Permission (what behavior is being encouraged).
The article aims to instill the belief that Cuba's current economic and social crisis is primarily a result of its communist economic policies and long-standing defiance of US influence, exacerbated by recent aggressive US sanctions. It subtly suggests that regime change or significant economic reforms aligned with US interests are the only viable solutions.
The article shifts the context of the US-Cuba relationship from one of a powerful nation exerting sustained pressure on a smaller, sovereign state, to one where Cuba's internal system is the primary cause of its suffering, and the US is responding to (or even offering to 'help' with) this internal collapse. It frames the current suffering in Cuba as a natural outcome of its governance, rather than as a direct and intended consequence of specific actions taken by the US.
The article mentions 'decades of US sanctions' but omits the full extent and specific mechanisms of the US embargo, particularly the extraterritorial nature of some sanctions (e.g., Helms-Burton Act) that penalize foreign companies trading with Cuba. It also vaguely mentions 'Trump ratcheted up the pressures' without detailing the specific humanitarian impact and intent of halting oil shipments or the broader international legal implications of attempting to 'depose' a foreign leader and embargo a nation's resources. While it notes that US credit cards do not work in Cuba, it doesn't clearly explain *why* or the full scope of how this and other financial restrictions impact daily life and the ability for remittances or international trade. The narrative around the 'disputed' Venezuelan election and Trump's 'taking' of Cuba is presented almost as an aside, rather than a significant act of international aggression.
The article subtly encourages readers to accept the narrative that Cuba's suffering is largely self-imposed due to its communist system and that aggressive US policies, including potential 'regime change,' are a necessary or even beneficial path forward for the Cuban people. It implicitly grants permission for continued US intervention and pressure, viewing it as a response to internal Cuban failures rather than a violation of sovereignty.
SMRP Pattern
Four manipulation maintenance tactics: Socializing the idea as normal, Minimizing concerns, Rationalizing with logic, and Projecting blame.
"Thanks to the inherent challenges of top-down economic management, hit-and-miss agricultural policies and decades of US sanctions, the Caribbean leftist experiment has hit hard times."
"Diaz-Canel acknowledged that his government was in talks with the US in mid-March but made clear that neither his government, nor the Cuban revolution nor 'our national electromagnetic system' were to blame for the island’s woes. 'The blame lies with the energy blockade that has been imposed on us.'"
Red Flags
High-severity indicators: silencing dissent, coordinated messaging, or weaponizing identity to shut down debate.
"Trump was floating the possibility of a “friendly takeover”. “They have no oil, they have no food,” he told reporters. “It’s really right now a nation in deep trouble.”"
Techniques Found(11)
Specific propaganda techniques identified using the SemEval-2023 academic taxonomy of 23 techniques across 6 categories.
"Life in communist Cuba has never been exactly luxurious."
The phrase 'never been exactly luxurious' uses an understatement to imply a dire living situation without directly stating extreme poverty, which is a loaded way to describe daily life.
"Thanks to the inherent challenges of top-down economic management, hit-and-miss agricultural policies and decades of US sanctions, the Caribbean leftist experiment has hit hard times."
This quote attributes Cuba's economic struggles to a simplified set of causes ('top-down economic management,' 'hit-and-miss agricultural policies,' 'decades of US sanctions') without fully detailing the complex interplay and historical context of these factors, or acknowledging other potential contributing elements.
"Why Trump was so energised to strike Venezuela has never been entirely clear."
The phrase 'never been entirely clear' is vague and obscures the specific motivations or evidence regarding Trump's actions, leaving the reason ambiguous rather than providing a clear explanation.
"Trump claimed it was about stopping a drug trade but later made comments about oil. US companies had invested heavily in Venezuela before it nationalised its industry in the early 1970s. “Venezuela unilaterally seized and stole American oil, American assets and American platforms, costing us billions and billions of dollars,” Trump claimed."
Trump's claim that Venezuela 'unilaterally seized and stole American oil, American assets and American platforms, costing us billions and billions of dollars' exaggerates the situation as 'stealing' and 'billions and billions of dollars' in losses, which is disproportionate given typical nationalization processes and potential compensation discussions.
"THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.”"
The phrase 'BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE' creates an artificial sense of urgency, pressuring Cuba to act quickly under threat without fully outlining the consequences or alternatives.
"Cuba is a failing nation. It has been for a long time, but now it doesn’t have Venezuela to prop it up."
Describing a country as a 'failing nation' is emotionally charged and pejorative. It frames Cuba's economic state in a way that implies inherent failure rather than detailing specific economic challenges.
"Exactly what he wants to have “happen” is, again, opaque"
The word 'opaque' here highlights the intentional lack of clarity or specific demands from Trump, obscuring his true intentions or long-term goals for Cuba.
"declaring a national emergency, claiming the “policies, practices, and actions of the government of Cuba constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat”."
The classification of Cuba's policies as an 'unusual and extraordinary threat' is an exaggeration, framing the situation with heightened alarm that may not be proportionate to the documented facts.
"He said Cuba supported terrorist groups including Hamas, hosted Russian and Chinese intelligence operations, tortured political opponents and denied the Cuban people free speech and press (although he did not provide evidence to support his claims)."
The parenthetical 'although he did not provide evidence to support his claims' casts doubt on the veracity of Trump's assertions about Cuba's actions, implying they might be unfounded.
"a poorly thought-out attempt to trigger a popular uprising in 1961 using 1500 or so hapless Cuban exiles trained by the CIA, who landed at an inlet on the island’s southern coast only to be killed or jailed"
The word 'hapless' to describe the exiles involved in the Bay of Pigs invasion is emotionally charged and intends to evoke pity or a sense of their unfortunate fate, coloring the historical event with a particular emotional tone.
"cigar-smoking Castro"
Describing Fidel Castro as 'cigar-smoking Castro' serves as a label that, while seemingly innocuous, can be used to conjure a specific, often stereotypical, image of him, rather than focusing on his political actions or policies directly.