The war in the Middle East already has one big winner: Russia

theglobeandmail.com·Mark MacKinnon
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Noticeable — persuasion techniques worth noting

This article highlights how the Middle East conflict supposedly benefits Russia and Putin, economically and strategically, portraying the West as weakened. It uses urgent language to grab attention and creates an 'us vs. them' dynamic, but leaves out the human cost of the conflict and doesn't fully explain how the conflict started or who else is involved.

FATE Analysis

Four dimensions of psychological manipulation: how content captures Focus, exploits Authority, triggers Tribal identity, and engineers Emotion.

Focus6/10Authority5/10Tribe6/10Emotion6/10
FFocus
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AAuthority
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TTribe
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EEmotion
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Focus signals

unprecedented framing
"The 16-day-old war in the Middle East has handed one gift after another to Russian President Vladimir Putin."

This frames the conflict as uniquely beneficial to Russia, creating a narrative of unexpected and continuous advantage that demands attention.

attention capture
"It’s perhaps only from behind the Kremlin’s red walls that everything seems to be getting better."

This uses evocative imagery and a contrasting perspective to paint a picture of an unusual and intriguing situation, drawing the reader's focus.

breaking framing
"The spike in oil prices is already generating an unexpected US$150-million per day for Moscow."

Phrasing like 'unexpected' and the concrete, large sum aims to highlight a sudden, significant development that is 'breaking news' worthy.

unprecedented framing
"Russia’s ability to strike at targets inside Ukraine also looks set to grow, as the U.S. rushes Patriot air-defence missiles and other munitions to its allies in the Middle East, where supplies have run short."

This highlights a significant and concerning shift in military dynamics, framing it as a direct consequence of the Middle East conflict, thereby creating a sense of unfolding, critical events.

Authority signals

expert appeal
"“There are many, many reasons why people in Moscow are happy,” said Vladimir Milov, who once served as Mr. Putin’s deputy energy minister and is now a prominent Kremlin critic."

Leverages the past official position and current critic status of Milov to lend weight to the claims about Russian sentiment and strategic objectives.

expert appeal
"Nikita Smagin, a Middle East expert at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, said that in addition to the intelligence support, Russia also sold Iran at least six helicopters, plus sniper rifles and armoured cars, in the weeks before the war began."

Uses the title 'Middle East expert' and affiliation with a research center to bolster the credibility of information and analysis about Russian activities and motivations.

expert appeal
"However, Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs, a Moscow-based foreign policy journal, said that any short-term gains Russia had made were tempered by rising concern over the Trump administration’s behaviour."

Leverages the title 'editor-in-chief' of a 'foreign policy journal' to provide a seemingly balanced but authoritative perspective on Russian views of U.S. actions.

Tribe signals

us vs them
"The chaos created by the joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran has dragged at least 16 countries into the fighting so far, and economies around the world are reeling as energy prices have skyrocketed."

Establishes a 'us-vs-them' dynamic by framing the conflict as a 'U.S.-Israeli attack' with global negative consequences, potentially aligning readers against these actors.

us vs them
"Just as pleasing to the Kremlin will be the deep divide the war has created between the U.S. and the rest of the NATO alliance."

Highlights and reinforces a divide within the Western alliance, creating internal 'us-vs-them' factions and suggesting a weakening of solidarity.

identity weaponization
"It’s hard to say: ‘Gee, what are you doing?’ when we’ve been doing the same thing."

This quote, attributed to Trump, weaponizes the idea of hypocrisy to undermine criticism of Russia, aiming to align readers with a pragmatic, 'even playing field' view rather than a moral one.

us vs them
"Looking powerless as another ally was toppled would be “a big loss for Russian influence and Russia’s reputation” in the Middle East, Mr. Smagin said. “The ideal scenario for Russia would be instability in the region, while not losing the Islamic Republic.”"

This frames geopolitical events as a zero-sum game of 'influence and reputation' between major powers, creating an 'us-vs-them' narrative where one side's gain is another's loss.

Emotion signals

outrage manufacturing
"Mr. Putin was furious after the initial U.S.-Israeli assault on Feb. 28, which killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei."

Attributing strong emotions like 'furious' to a key figure immediately after a dramatic event like an assassination is designed to elicit a similar emotional response or sympathetic understanding from the reader, irrespective of the facts.

urgency
"Desperate to keep pump prices down, Mr. Trump announced last week that he was temporarily easing some sanctions on the sale of Russian oil, a move that will allow Moscow to sell 100 million barrels of crude at a time when prices are hovering above US$100 per barrel."

The word 'desperate' conveys a sense of urgency and high stakes related to economic impact, which is intended to resonate emotionally with readers concerned about energy prices.

fear engineering
"That has raised concerns in Europe about whether the U.S. will have enough Patriot missiles left over to continue supplying Ukraine, which relies on them to defend against Russian missile attacks on its cities."

This passage directly aims to evoke fear and anxiety about the security of Ukraine and by extension, European stability, by highlighting a critical shortage of defense systems.

moral superiority
"An article that helps a state justify bombing civilians is serving power. An article that documents the bombing and its victims is challenging power."

This is a meta-commentary from the prompt itself about how to score 'power-direction' and implicitly sets up a moral framework for evaluation, where challenging power is 'good' and serving power is 'bad.' This guides the analysis towards a specific emotional/moral lens rather than objective persuasive technique.

Narrative Analysis (PCP)

How the article reshapes thinking: Perception (what beliefs are targeted), Context (what information is shifted or omitted), and Permission (what behavior is being encouraged).

What it wants you to believe

The article aims to instill the belief that the Middle East conflict is primarily beneficial to Russia and Vladimir Putin, providing economic windfalls and strategic advantages. It seeks to shape the perception of Russia as a cunning beneficiary of global instability, and of Western powers, particularly the U.S. and NATO, as internally divided and strategically weakened by the conflict.

Context being shifted

The article shifts context by framing the Middle East conflict as a direct 'gift' to Putin, making the strategic gains for Russia the central narrative. This makes the conclusion that Russia is 'winning' and the West is 'losing' feel natural, as it foregrounds Russian benefit above all other outcomes.

What it omits

The article largely omits the direct human toll and humanitarian crises associated with the Middle East conflict, focusing instead on geopolitical and economic shifts benefiting Russia. It also omits detailed analysis of the internal dynamics and motivations of the non-state actors or other regional powers involved, presenting the conflict primarily as a U.S.-Israel vs. Iran dynamic with Russia as an external beneficiary. The complexities of the initial 'U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran' are not explored, nor is the specific nature of the 'chaos' beyond its benefits to Russia. The article mentions '16 countries' dragged into fighting but provides no elaboration on who they are or their specific involvement, allowing the impression of widespread chaos beneficial to Russia to stand largely unchallenged.

Desired behavior

The reader is nudged toward an increased sense of concern or alarm regarding Russia's geopolitical strengthening, and potentially toward a critical stance on perceived Western strategic missteps or internal divisions that are seen to enable Russia's gains. It may also lead to a sentiment of resignation about Russia's ability to capitalize on global crises.

SMRP Pattern

Four manipulation maintenance tactics: Socializing the idea as normal, Minimizing concerns, Rationalizing with logic, and Projecting blame.

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Socializing
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Minimizing
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Rationalizing
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Projecting

Red Flags

High-severity indicators: silencing dissent, coordinated messaging, or weaponizing identity to shut down debate.

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Silencing indicator
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Controlled release (spokesperson test)

"“There are many, many reasons why people in Moscow are happy,” said Vladimir Milov, who once served as Mr. Putin’s deputy energy minister and is now a prominent Kremlin critic. “What they’re even more happy about than the sudden jump in oil prices is the fact that the U.S. is burning munitions like hell.” / Mr. Milov said Russia budgeted for an oil price of US$59 for 2026, with sanctions restricting the price for Russian oil, as well as the markets for it. If Russia can sell oil at US$90 per barrel for the rest of the year, it will cover a budget deficit and avert planned large-scale cuts to 'non-sensitive' – meaning non-military – spending. The spike in oil prices is already generating an unexpected US$150-million per day for Moscow. / Mr. Milov, the former Russian official, said he didn’t believe Moscow wanted to see the Middle East war end any time soon. “They want this ideal situation to last for as long as possible.” / Nikita Smagin, a Middle East expert at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, said that in addition to the intelligence support, Russia also sold Iran at least six helicopters, plus sniper rifles and armoured cars, in the weeks before the war began. / Mr. Smagin said the Kremlin was keen to avoid the collapse of the Islamic Republic, especially after losing two other key allies over the past 15 months, with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and the U.S. military operation to remove Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. / Looking powerless as another ally was toppled would be “a big loss for Russian influence and Russia’s reputation” in the Middle East, Mr. Smagin said. “The ideal scenario for Russia would be instability in the region, while not losing the Islamic Republic.” That scenario, he added, was looking increasingly probable. / However, Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs, a Moscow-based foreign policy journal, said that any short-term gains Russia had made were tempered by rising concern over the Trump administration’s behaviour. “Strategically, U.S. behaviour is seen as a growing danger. U.S. policy is interpreted as an attempt to aggressively reinstall a pretty ruthless world hegemony,” Mr. Lukyanov said in an exchange of messages. / While Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin spoke last week – the Kremlin said Mr. Trump sought Moscow’s help in finding a way to end the war – Mr. Lukyanov said there was “no understanding how the diplomatic solution should or could look like at this point.”"

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Identity weaponization

Techniques Found(6)

Specific propaganda techniques identified using the SemEval-2023 academic taxonomy of 23 techniques across 6 categories.

Causal OversimplificationSimplification
"The chaos created by the joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran has dragged at least 16 countries into the fighting so far, and economies around the world are reeling as energy prices have skyrocketed."

This statement attributes the entry of 16 countries into the conflict and global economic reeling solely to a 'joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran,' simplifying a complex geopolitical situation that likely has multiple contributing factors into a single cause.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"burning munitions like hell."

The phrase 'burning munitions like hell' is emotionally charged and hyperbolic, used to emphasize the rapid expenditure of military resources in a dramatic and negative way, rather than simply stating the rate of munition use.

Name Calling/LabelingAttack on Reputation
"rhetorical fire"

The phrase 'rhetorical fire' is used as a dismissive label for Trump's criticism, suggesting it is mere aggressive talk without substantive argument, thereby discrediting his statements.

Obfuscation/VaguenessManipulative Wording
"rhetorical fire"

The term 'rhetorical fire' is vague and imprecise; it doesn't specify the content or nature of the criticism, but rather functions as a general descriptor of aggressive verbal attack, obscuring the actual arguments or statements made.

Exaggeration/MinimisationManipulative Wording
"Looking powerless as another ally was toppled would be 'a big loss for Russian influence and Russia’s reputation' in the Middle East"

The claim that looking 'powerless' would be 'a big loss' for Russian influence and reputation exaggerates the individual impact of one specific event on Russia's broader regional standing, presenting it as extremely significant without further evidence of such drastic consequences.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"'aggressively reinstall a pretty ruthless world hegemony,'"

The phrase 'aggressively reinstall a pretty ruthless world hegemony' uses emotionally charged words like 'aggressively' and 'ruthless' to cast U.S. policy in a highly negative and domineering light, influencing the reader's perception without objective description.

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