Oil, the crisis crushing Cuba and giving Trump new leverage
Analysis Summary
This article tries to convince you that Cuba's government is failing due to its own incompetence and that US pressure, including sanctions, is a smart way to encourage change. It does this by heavily quoting experts who predict Cuba's collapse and by focusing on current hardships while downplaying the decades-long impact of the full US economic embargo. The article mostly supports its claims through expert opinions rather than broadly presented evidence, and it aims to make you think that enabling Cuban private enterprise with US support is a good solution, even if there's hardship along the way.
Cross-Outlet PSYOP Detected
This article is part of a narrative being pushed across multiple outlets:
FATE Analysis
Four dimensions of psychological manipulation: how content captures Focus, exploits Authority, triggers Tribal identity, and engineers Emotion.
Focus signals
""I have never seen or studied a country where 100% of the fuel disappears," says Piñón."
This quote from an expert frames the situation as unparalleled and extreme, drawing attention through its unprecedented nature.
"The truth is that someone in the Poey neighborhood of Havana set fire to a utility pole in an act of rebellion and exhaustion, like someone who would rather remain in darkness forever than have the electricity gradually restored."
This anecdotal opening uses a specific, dramatic, and unusual event to immediately grab the reader's attention, creating a 'novelty spike'.
"If by the end of March we don’t see the smokestack of a tanker on the horizon, Cuba will have reached zero hour."
This creates a sense of impending, critical, and urgent development, framing the situation as reaching a definitive 'zero hour' by a specific deadline, demanding immediate attention.
Authority signals
"Every day at 7 a.m., Jorge Piñón, an energy expert leading a team at the University of Texas that tracks Cuban oil, grabs his coffee, sits down at his computer, and opens one of the satellite tracking systems."
This establishes Piñón's credentials and the institutional weight of the University of Texas to lend credibility to his statements about Cuba's oil situation. By describing his rigorous tracking system, it reinforces his authority.
"Juliette Isabel Fernández. “The lack of electricity not only plunges physical spaces into darkness, but it also dulls the mind.”"
Describing Fernández as a 'Cuban editor and psychologist' lends an air of professional expertise and insight to her emotional and psychological assessment of the blackout's impact, making her statement more persuasive.
"Specialists have warned that the biggest problem facing Cuba’s thermoelectric plants, after more than 40 years of service, is the lack of major maintenance these “old, outdated” structures receive, says Piñón."
The article uses the collective 'Specialists' and then reinforces with Piñón's expert opinion to solidify the technical assessment of the power plants' condition, leveraging perceived professional consensus.
"According to a study by Oniel Díaz Castellanos, director of the consulting firm AUGE, 78% of MSMEs reported a drop in sales during the first month of this year."
Citing a 'study by Oniel Díaz Castellanos, director of the consulting firm AUGE' leverages the authority of a consulting firm and its data to back a claim about private business struggles.
Tribe signals
"And that’s something the Trump administration knows firsthand: that if you remove a single piece from the already weakened machinery of the Cuban government, the whole structure can come down. Washington’s strategy toward Cuba appears to be different..."
This frames the situation as a deliberate strategy by the US ('Washington’s strategy') against the 'already weakened machinery of the Cuban government,' creating an 'us-vs-them' dynamic between the US administration and the Cuban government.
"After nearly 70 years of Castroism, what Cuba offers its citizens is a depressed economy, inflation above 12%, ridiculously low wages, and a life reduced to figuring out how to secure the next plate of food."
This passage implicitly creates a division between the current state of Cuba under 'Castroism' and the aspirations of its 'citizens,' using this historical political identity as a marker for the country's economic failures.
"But the new measure does not even begin to alleviate Cuba’s fuel shortage."
This implicitly sets up a conflict between the stated intent of US policy to 'alleviate the Cuban people’s suffering' and the reality presented that the measure is inadequate, potentially creating an 'us-vs-them' dynamic between the US policy's effectiveness and the Cubans' actual plight.
Emotion signals
"Life slips away, and you feel like you can’t see clearly beyond a single step,” says Cuban editor and psychologist Juliette Isabel Fernández. “The lack of electricity not only plunges physical spaces into darkness, but it also dulls the mind.”"
This quote evokes a sense of existential despair and mental paralysis, aiming to generate empathy and fear of a future where life is diminishing and minds are dulled, beyond just physical darkness.
"If by the end of March we don’t see the smokestack of a tanker on the horizon, Cuba will have reached zero hour.”"
This statement uses a dramatic, almost apocalyptic phrase ('zero hour') and a hard deadline ('end of March') to create an intense sense of urgency and impending disaster, aiming to provoke anxiety.
"The approach for the island is one of suffocation, like taking the respirator away from a patient on life support."
This vivid and stark metaphor compares US policy to 'taking the respirator away from a patient on life support,' strongly evoking a sense of cruelty and impending death, designed to generate outrage at the perceived inhumanity of the policy.
"Without energy, there can be no economy, no education, no healthcare, no food production.” “If you don’t have that engine, the rest of the country collapses. Without energy, there is no country.”"
This series of statements presents a domino effect of societal collapse, painting a dire picture of a country's complete disintegration without energy, aimed at instilling deep fear about Cuba's future.
Narrative Analysis (PCP)
How the article reshapes thinking: Perception (what beliefs are targeted), Context (what information is shifted or omitted), and Permission (what behavior is being encouraged).
The article aims to instill the belief that the Cuban government is incompetent and oppressive, inherently incapable of providing for its citizens, and that its collapse is inevitable and largely due to its own systemic failures rather than solely external pressure. It also seeks to cultivate the belief that US policy, specifically 'suffocation,' is a calculated and effective strategy to induce economic and potentially political change by empowering a private sector that is framed as the key to Cuba's future.
The article shifts the context from a global geopolitical struggle involving US sanctions and a long-standing embargo to a narrative centered on the internal failings of Cuba's energy infrastructure and economic model. By emphasizing the 'leak in one of its boilers due to corrosion' and the 'old, outdated' thermoelectric plants, and the 'heavy crude oil' that its refineries can't process, it makes the current crisis appear as a natural outcome of mismanagement rather than a crisis exacerbated by targeted sanctions that limit access to fuel and spare parts. The mention of Trump's 'emergency over Cuba' and tariffs acts as a catalyst, but the underlying issue is presented as internal decay.
The article attributes current hardships to Cuba's internal issues and Trump-era sanctions, but largely omits the comprehensive and decades-long impact of the full US economic embargo that predates the recent measures. While it acknowledges the 'decades-long U.S. trade embargo' in passing regarding refinery capabilities, its broader economic impact, including restrictions on aid, trade, and financial transactions that have consistently hampered Cuba's ability to maintain infrastructure, secure fuel, and develop its economy, is downplayed or not fully explained as a contributing factor to the 'already-broken system' and infrastructure decay. This omission makes the 'suffocation' strategy seem like a more recent, targeted intervention rather than an intensification of a long-standing policy.
The article encourages readers to accept the US strategy of economic pressure on Cuba as a legitimate, even necessary, approach to achieve 'economic change' and potentially 'political change.' It implicitly grants permission to view the suffering of the Cuban people as an unfortunate but acceptable byproduct of a strategy aimed at dismantling a failed socialist regime. It also nudges readers towards accepting the notion that empowering private businesses (even with US-supplied fuel) is a pragmatic and beneficial step for the Cuban people, despite potential economic inequalities introduced.
SMRP Pattern
Four manipulation maintenance tactics: Socializing the idea as normal, Minimizing concerns, Rationalizing with logic, and Projecting blame.
"Washington’s strategy toward Cuba appears to be different — not a war like the one unleashed in Iran, a country with the world’s third‑largest fuel reserves; nor an attack like the one carried out in Venezuela... The approach for the island is one of suffocation, like taking the respirator away from a patient on life support."
"And that’s something the Trump administration knows firsthand: that if you remove a single piece from the already weakened machinery of the Cuban government, the whole structure can come down."
Red Flags
High-severity indicators: silencing dissent, coordinated messaging, or weaponizing identity to shut down debate.
"What Trump is doing is reducing the state’s presence in the economy,' says Torres."
Techniques Found(14)
Specific propaganda techniques identified using the SemEval-2023 academic taxonomy of 23 techniques across 6 categories.
"The truth is that someone in the Poey neighborhood of Havana set fire to a utility pole in an act of rebellion and exhaustion, like someone who would rather remain in darkness forever than have the electricity gradually restored."
This statement attributes the complex issue of a widespread blackout to a single, singular act of rebellion, oversimplifying the multifaceted causes of power outages in a struggling infrastructure.
"like someone who would rather remain in darkness forever than have the electricity gradually restored."
The phrase 'rather remain in darkness forever' uses emotionally charged language to portray the act as extreme and irrational, disproportionately framing the sentiment of rebellion.
"Life slips away, and you feel like you can’t see clearly beyond a single step"
This quote uses emotionally evocative language ('slips away,' 'can't see clearly') to create a sense of despair and helplessness, which is disproportionate to solely describing the impact of a power outage.
"a country’s survival is measured in drops of oil."
This phrase exaggerates the dependency on oil to the point of implying national survival hangs on 'drops,' which is a hyperbolic representation of the country's economic reality.
"“The questions are: Will the Sea Horse arrive? And if it does, will the U.S. Coast Guard intercept it?”"
This statement introduces the possibility of the U.S. Coast Guard intercepting a humanitarian fuel shipment, implicitly playing on underlying fears of U.S. intervention or economic pressure to cast a shadow on the situation.
"The approach for the island is one of suffocation, like taking the respirator away from a patient on life support."
This simile uses highly emotional and alarming language ('suffocation,' 'respirator away from a patient on life support') to describe U.S. policy, creating a strong negative impression that is disproportionate to a description of economic pressure.
"exhausted after years of scarcity"
The word 'exhausted' is an emotionally charged term that evokes sympathy and highlights the severity of the situation, going beyond a neutral description of living conditions.
"a depressed economy, inflation above 12%, ridiculously low wages, and a life reduced to figuring out how to secure the next plate of food."
The phrases 'depressed economy,' 'ridiculously low wages,' and 'life reduced to figuring out how to secure the next plate of food' use emotionally loaded language to paint a bleak and desperate picture of life in Cuba, exaggerating the daily struggle.
"“Put aside for a moment the fact that it has no freedom of expression, no democracy, no respect for human rights,”"
While these are serious issues, the phrasing 'put aside for a moment the fact that it has no freedom of expression, no democracy, no respect for human rights' is a rhetorical device that acknowledges highly sensitive criticisms in a vague, dismissive manner to pivot to a different focus, rather than addressing them directly.
"the country had already been sinking into its own decline."
The phrase 'sinking into its own decline' uses emotionally charged language to describe a negative trajectory, implying an irreversible downfall rather than a simple economic downturn.
"after more than 40 years of service, is the lack of major maintenance these “old, outdated” structures receive"
The terms 'old, outdated' are used to highlight the negative state of the infrastructure and evoke a sense of neglect and decay, beyond a factual description of age and maintenance.
"strained even further by Trump’s measures"
The word 'strained' is emotionally charged, suggesting duress and hardship, implicating 'Trump's measures' as a direct cause of intensified suffering without detailing the specific mechanisms.
"a paralyzed country"
The term 'paralyzed' is a strong, dramatic descriptor that evokes a sense of complete helplessness and incapacitation, which is an exaggeration of an economically struggling country.
"“The Cuban government has always viewed the private sector as a necessary evil. They need it; they realize that private companies are much more agile in resolving issues or making decisions, but in practice, they always see it as a threat. If you have an actor that builds up money and resources and gains influence, that actor can eventually begin to challenge you politically,”"
This quote, attributed to an economist, presents the Cuban government's view of the private sector in a way that casts doubt on their sincerity or genuine support for private enterprise, implying ulterior motives ('threat,' 'challenge you politically').