Iran and the United States, a long history of sham peace negotiations

english.elpais.com·Francisco Peregil
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Noticeable — persuasion techniques worth noting

This article discusses the current diplomatic struggles between the US and Iran, highlighting how historical distrust, grievances, and past events like the 1979 hostage crisis and Operation Eagle Claw have poisoned relations for decades. It suggests that this deep-seated historical baggage makes current peace negotiations difficult and prone to failure, often overshadowing the content of any proposals.

FATE Analysis

Four dimensions of psychological manipulation: how content captures Focus, exploits Authority, triggers Tribal identity, and engineers Emotion.

Focus3/10Authority4/10Tribe4/10Emotion5/10
FFocus
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AAuthority
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TTribe
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EEmotion
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Focus signals

attention capture
"The United States is currently engaged in a diplomatic game with Iran, a series of offers and denials, a dance of shadows where the White House’s peace proposals clash with the supposed rejections of a wounded Tehran."

This opening sentence uses evocative language ('diplomatic game,' 'dance of shadows,' 'wounded Tehran') to frame the current situation as a dramatic and compelling narrative, designed to immediately draw the reader in and hold their attention.

unprecedented framing
"Trump sent a peace proposal to Iran through mediators with one hand, and with the other, ordered the deployment of nearly 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East."

This highlights a perceived contradiction or unusual juxtaposition of actions (peace proposal vs. troop deployment) which can create a spike of novelty and curiosity about the unexpected, holding the reader's attention.

breaking framing
"Just hours before the joint Israeli-U.S. attack, Oman’s Foreign Minister, Badr Al Busaidi, had posted a message on social media saying that an agreement was “within reach.”"

The phrase 'Just hours before' emphasizes timing and a sudden, dramatic turn of events, creating a sense of urgency and newsworthiness that captures attention.

Authority signals

expert appeal
"Asli Aydintasbas, an analyst at the Brookings Institution, explains via email that Iran occupies a particular place in the American imagination, “not only as an adversary, but as the symbol of a hostile regime that has acted against U.S. interests for half a century.”"

The article leverages the credentials of an 'analyst at the Brookings Institution' to lend weight and credibility to the historical and psychological assessment of US-Iran relations, framing it as an expert-backed perspective.

expert appeal
"Trita Parsi, vice president and co-founder of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, notes: “Trump has an interest in calming energy markets; Iran has an interest in increasing the risk premium. So Trump exaggerates the prospects for diplomacy and Iran downplays them, regardless of the facts on the ground.”"

Invoking a 'vice president and co-founder' of a reputable institute provides an expert interpretation of the motivations behind the diplomatic postures, appealing to the reader's trust in institutional authority to explain complex political dynamics.

expert appeal
"For his part, Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), notes via email that Trump continues to condition any new diplomacy on an effective capitulation by Iran, “something unacceptable to Tehran.”"

The article uses another 'director' from a significant think tank (ECFR) to interpret the current diplomatic standoff, enhancing the perceived credibility and insight of the analysis presented.

institutional authority
"Oman’s Foreign Minister, Badr Al Busaidi,... had posted a message on social media saying that an agreement was “within reach.”[...]Al Busaidi was more explicit in a recent opinion piece published in The Economist: “Twice in nine months,” the minister recalled, “the United States and Iran have been on the brink of a real agreement..."

The article quotes a Foreign Minister and references his publication in 'The Economist', using the institutional weight of his diplomatic position and the respected publication to validate the claim that an agreement was close, thereby adding gravity to the narrative of missed opportunities.

Tribe signals

us vs them
"The United States is currently engaged in a diplomatic game with Iran, a series of offers and denials, a dance of shadows where the White House’s peace proposals clash with the supposed rejections of a wounded Tehran."

This sets up a direct 'us vs. them' dynamic between the 'White House’s peace proposals' and 'a wounded Tehran,' immediately framing the relationship as adversarial and contrasting two distinct parties with opposing actions/stances.

us vs them
"The current attacks echo alongside the humiliating U.S. operation, Operation Eagle Claw, in 1980.To understand the roots of this mutual resentment, one must go back to the origins of the Islamic Revolution that brought the ayatollahs to power in February 1979. The regime accused the United States of supporting the deposed monarch, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi."

The article frames historical events, such as the Shah's overthrow and the hostage crisis, as foundational moments of 'mutual resentment,' creating a deep-seated 'us vs. them' narrative rooted in past grievances and perceived betrayals between the two countries.

identity weaponization
"Asli Aydintasbas, an analyst at the Brookings Institution, explains...that Iran occupies a particular place in the American imagination, “not only as an adversary, but as the symbol of a hostile regime that has acted against U.S. interests for half a century.”"

This quote describes how Iran is perceived in the 'American imagination' as a 'symbol of a hostile regime' and inherently 'against U.S. interests,' weaponizing national identity by defining Iran not just as a geopolitical opponent but as an ideological and historical adversary to American identity/interests.

us vs them
"Trump posted on his Truth Social network: “The Iranian negotiators are very different and ‘strange.’ They are ‘begging’ us to make a deal, which they should be doing since they have been militarily obliterated, with zero chance of a comeback, and yet they publicly state that they are only ‘looking at our proposal.’ WRONG!!! They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty!”"

Trump's quoted statement deeply entrenches an 'us vs. them' dynamic, portraying Iranian negotiators as 'strange' and 'wrong,' while asserting American military dominance and issuing clear threats. This starkly differentiates and antagonizes the two sides.

Emotion signals

urgency
"The official objective is to halt the war initiated by Israel and the United States on February 28, but the chessboard is weighed down by nearly half a century of grievances. There is a pathological distrust between the two sides, fueled by decades of broken promises and military interventions that have turned diplomacy into a minefield."

The words 'halt the war' immediately create a sense of urgency, while 'pathological distrust,' 'decades of broken promises,' and 'diplomacy into a minefield' paint a picture of severe, escalating conflict, engineering a feeling of high stakes and impending crisis.

outrage manufacturing
"But the mission, involving eight helicopters, turned into a fiery inferno when one of the aircraft collided with a Hercules transport plane during refueling in the Iranian desert. Eight American servicemen died."

The vivid description 'fiery inferno' and the explicit mention of 'Eight American servicemen died' is engineered to evoke a strong emotional reaction, likely sorrow, anger, or outrage, linked to national memory of the event.

fear engineering
"But it was clear that the nuclear program was far from having been eradicated. So both sides returned to the negotiating table indirectly..."

This statement maintains an underlying fear that the nuclear program is not 'eradicated,' suggesting a continuing threat despite military action, which can induce anxiety about potential future dangers.

urgency
"Trump posted on his Truth Social network: “...They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty!”"

Trump's direct threat 'before it is too late' and 'NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty!' directly engineers a sense of urgency and fear regarding the consequences of inaction or continued defiance, implying dire outcomes.

outrage manufacturing
"The recent attacks on Iran, which occurred while negotiations were underway, have made dialogue more difficult."

The implied contradiction of conducting 'attacks' while 'negotiations were underway' is framed to generate a sense of frustration or outrage over seemingly irrational or counterproductive actions that undermine peace efforts.

Narrative Analysis (PCP)

How the article reshapes thinking: Perception (what beliefs are targeted), Context (what information is shifted or omitted), and Permission (what behavior is being encouraged).

What it wants you to believe

The article aims to install the belief that the current diplomatic struggles between the US and Iran are deeply rooted in a long history of mutual distrust, historical grievances, and perceived betrayals from both sides. It emphasizes that this historical baggage makes any current negotiation inherently difficult and prone to failure due to a lack of genuine trust.

Context being shifted

The article shifts the context of current US-Iran relations from immediate geopolitical factors or specific policy objectives to one dominated by historical trauma and an inability to move past foundational events like the 1979 hostage crisis and Operation Eagle Claw. This historical lens makes continued distrust and failed negotiations appear 'normal' and almost pre-determined.

What it omits

The article omits detailed context regarding the specific strategic interests or internal political pressures driving the current 'peace proposals' from the US or the 'rejections' from Iran, beyond the historical distrust. It also largely sidesteps the humanitarian impact of the described 'war initiated by Israel and the United States on February 28' and the 'Twelve-Day War' on civilian populations or any specific international law violations, focusing instead on the diplomatic dance and historical grievances. The broader geopolitical context or competing global powers influencing the situation is also largely absent.

Desired behavior

The article nudges the reader toward a position of accepting that ongoing hostility and diplomatic stalemates are understandable, if unfortunate, given the deep historical scars. It subtly grants permission for a cynical or pessimistic view of US-Iran relations, where trust is almost impossible to build, and diplomatic efforts are largely tactical maneuvers rather than genuine attempts at peace. It might also grant permission for a certain level of detachment from the conflict's resolution, as if the situation is too entrenched to be easily fixed.

SMRP Pattern

Four manipulation maintenance tactics: Socializing the idea as normal, Minimizing concerns, Rationalizing with logic, and Projecting blame.

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Socializing
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Minimizing

"The Pentagon initially stated that the attack had delayed the nuclear program 'by a few months.' Later, they extended that estimation to two years. But it was clear that the nuclear program was far from having been eradicated."

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Rationalizing

"To understand the roots of this mutual resentment, one must go back to the origins of the Islamic Revolution that brought the ayatollahs to power in February 1979. The regime accused the United States of supporting the deposed monarch, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The Iranians wanted to prevent the American government from granting asylum to the Shah while he was hospitalized in New York for treatment of lymphoma."

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Projecting

Red Flags

High-severity indicators: silencing dissent, coordinated messaging, or weaponizing identity to shut down debate.

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Silencing indicator
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Controlled release (spokesperson test)

"Asli Aydintasbas, an analyst at the Brookings Institution, explains via email that Iran occupies a particular place in the American imagination, “not only as an adversary, but as the symbol of a hostile regime that has acted against U.S. interests for half a century.”"

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Identity weaponization

Techniques Found(9)

Specific propaganda techniques identified using the SemEval-2023 academic taxonomy of 23 techniques across 6 categories.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"a dance of shadows where the White House’s peace proposals clash with the supposed rejections of a wounded Tehran."

The phrase 'dance of shadows' uses evocative, dramatic language to describe diplomatic negotiations, implying secrecy and possibly manipulation, rather than neutrally stating that discussions are ongoing. 'Wounded Tehran' assigns an emotional state to a nation, which could be seen as an attempt to evoke sympathy or suggest irrational behavior.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"The official objective is to halt the war initiated by Israel and the United States on February 28"

Describing the conflict as 'the war initiated by Israel and the United States' when discussing diplomatic efforts over Iran's nuclear program is highly charged. It assigns direct blame for the initiation of a 'war' which may be subject to different interpretations and could be disproportionate to the actual events, depending on what 'war' refers to here. If it refers to air strikes, 'war' is a strong, definitive term.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"turned diplomacy into a minefield."

This phrase uses a metaphor for danger and extreme difficulty, conveying a heightened sense of peril and complexity in diplomatic relations beyond a neutral description.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"the mission, involving eight helicopters, turned into a fiery inferno when one of the aircraft collided with a Hercules transport plane during refueling in the Iranian desert. Eight American servicemen died. And that was the final nail in the coffin of Carter’s political career."

The phrase 'fiery inferno' is emotionally charged and dramatic, intensifying the description of the accident. 'Final nail in the coffin' is a strong idiom used to emphasize the definitive negative impact on Carter's career, rather than neutrally stating the mission's failure contributed to his electoral loss.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"Trump will personally remember the 1979 hostage crisis. He will not want to experience another similar episode. Therefore, any new peace proposal is evaluated not on its content, but in light of half a century of hostility and humiliation.”"

The word 'humiliation' is emotionally charged, framing past events in a way that suggests a profound offense rather than a purely factual accounting of historical interactions between the two nations.

Exaggeration/MinimisationManipulative Wording
"calling the pact “the worst deal ever,”"

This quote attributes an extreme and categorical negative assessment ('the worst deal ever') to Trump, which is an exaggeration used to characterize the deal's perceived failure.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"It seems an agreement with Tehran was close until June 13, 2025, when Israel launched an attack against the Islamic Republic."

The term 'attack' to describe what might also be termed a military operation or strike, particularly in the context of halting a nuclear program, can be seen as emotionally charged, emphasizing aggression.

Exaggeration/MinimisationManipulative Wording
"Trump called it a “spectacular success.”"

The phrase 'spectacular success' is an effusive and exaggerated positive assessment of military action, clearly aiming to bolster a particular narrative of effectiveness and triumph.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"while this diplomatic dance of deception continues, mediators like Pakistan attempt to create cracks in a seemingly impregnable wall of mistrust."

The phrase 'diplomatic dance of deception' uses strong, negative language to characterize the ongoing negotiations as disingenuous or misleading. 'Impregnable wall of mistrust' uses dramatic and absolute language to describe the level of distrust, presenting it as an almost insurmountable barrier.

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