US-Iran war as it happened: One Iranian soccer player reverses asylum decision and will return to Iran; Ships targeted in Strait of Hormuz; ACCC investigates petrol price gouging

smh.com.au·Emily Kaine, Sarah McPhee, Angus Delaney
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Elevated — multiple influence tactics active

This article uses fear and a sense of urgency to highlight a spreading, catastrophic conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the US, aiming to make readers believe it has massive global humanitarian and economic impacts. It focuses on civilian casualties and humanitarian crises, particularly framing Israel as an aggressor in Lebanon, and uses the plight of Iranian women to portray Iran's government as oppressive.

FATE Analysis

Four dimensions of psychological manipulation: how content captures Focus, exploits Authority, triggers Tribal identity, and engineers Emotion.

Focus6/10Authority5/10Tribe6/10Emotion8/10
FFocus
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AAuthority
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TTribe
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EEmotion
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Focus signals

breaking framing
"Thank you for reading our rolling coverage of the Israeli-US war on Iran and its impacts throughout the world. This live blog has closed, but our coverage continues here."

The 'rolling coverage' and 'live blog has closed' framing, alongside 'continues here' creates a sense of ongoing, immediate, and evolving events, demanding continuous attention.

novelty spike
"One member of the Iranian women’s soccer team who accepted a humanitarian visa to stay in Australia has changed her mind and sought to return to Iran, said Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke. That means a total of six Iranians have accepted the government’s offer to remain in Australia."

Highlights a surprising and new development (a player changing her mind), suggesting an unusual turn of events that captures attention due to its unexpected nature.

novelty spike
"Speculation remained over the health of Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, after the son of Iran’s president said, 'he is healthy and there is no problem'. This is contrary to references in state media that Khamenei was wounded in the war, and reports that he was injured in the initial US-Israeli strike."

Presents conflicting information and 'speculation' about a high-profile figure, indicating an unfolding mystery or significant, unsettled development.

novelty spike
"The Australian dollar has emerged as an unlikely haven, buoyed by elevated oil and gas prices and growing bets that the central bank may raise interest rates as early as next week. The Aussie climbed to its highest level since June 2022 – US71.68¢ – and reached more than a 35-year high against the yen, making it the top-performing major currency this year."

Highlights a 'new' and 'unlikely' economic development, using superlatives ('highest level Since June 2022', '35-year high', 'top-performing') to suggest an extraordinary and attention-grabbing financial shift.

Authority signals

credential leveraging
"One member of the Iranian women’s soccer team who accepted a humanitarian visa to stay in Australia has changed her mind and sought to return to Iran, said Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke."

The information is attributed to a government minister, lending credibility and official weight to the statement.

institutional authority
"Pope Leo has lamented the death of numerous civilians in the ongoing Iran war and also expressed closeness to people in Lebanon, saying the country, targeted by Israeli strikes, was going through a “great trial.”"

Leverages the moral and spiritual authority of the Pope, a widely recognized global figure, to frame the conflict as a humanitarian crisis and call for prayer.

expert appeal
"Our Europe correspondent, David Crowe, and chief photojournalist Kate Geraghty are at the scene, where locals are distraught at the shocking attack."

Uses the presence and reporting of a 'correspondent' and 'chief photojournalist' on the ground to imbue the reporting with direct, professional observation and credibility.

institutional authority
"Video released by Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency and verified by The New York Times appears to show a Tomahawk cruise missile striking a naval base beside a girls’ school in Minab."

Cites verification by 'The New York Times', a highly respected and authoritative news organization, to bolster the credibility of the video evidence.

Tribe signals

us vs them
"Thank you for reading our rolling coverage of the Israeli-US war on Iran and its impacts throughout the world."

Immediately frames the conflict as a clear 'us-vs-them' between 'Israeli-US' (portrayed as a combined entity) and 'Iran'.

us vs them
"Opinion: As Iran’s exiled prince, I fear for the women Australia couldn’t saveBy Reza Pahlavi"

The title itself, written by an 'exiled prince,' inherently establishes an 'us-vs-them' dynamic between the opposition/exiled perspective and the ruling regime in Iran.

us vs them
"Then the security handlers who had accompanied the squad did what the Islamic Republic always does: they applied pressure through harassment. Australia offered humanitarian visas to the entire squad. That mattered. But democratic governments must understand something about how the Islamic Republic operates. It controls people through fear, through threats to families, through handlers and surveillance and coercion."

Creates a stark 'us-vs-them' between 'the Islamic Republic' (portrayed as oppressive, controlling, and using fear) and 'democratic governments' (portrayed as offering humanitarian aid and understanding freedom).

us vs them
"'Following their failed campaign, the terrorist US army and cruel Zionist regime [Israel] have targeted one of the country’s banks,' state media ⁠quoted Ebrahim Zolfaqari as saying."

Directly employs highly charged, dehumanizing language ('terrorist US army,' 'cruel Zionist regime') to create an extreme 'us-vs-them' narrative from a source quoted in the article, clearly delineating enemies.

us vs them
"'I can assure you it wasn’t an intention. That’s the sort of thing Russia does. We don’t do that. But, you know, I don’t see any other possible explanation.'"

The Republican senator draws a clear 'us-vs-them' line, distinguishing 'we' (the US) from 'Russia,' implicitly positioning the US as morally superior in warfare conduct despite the tragic outcome.

identity weaponization
"This is a part of the city where people thought they might be safe. Kristen Geraghty Her daughter is staying with her and her son has returned to Beirut, and she worries about them both. Our local colleague here tells me what she is saying, but I don’t need a translation to understand the message: “This is terrifying.” We are in the Aisha Bakkar district of Beirut, close to the sea. It is a Sunni Muslim area and not part of the southern district of Beirut from which Israeli forces have told people to evacuate."

Weaponizes sectarian identity (Sunni Muslim area) to highlight the 'unexpected' nature of the attack, implying that certain areas or identities should be safe, thus framing the attack as a violation of presumed tribal boundaries or neutrality.

Emotion signals

outrage manufacturing
"Israel’s attacks on Lebanon are causing a widening humanitarian crisis. Almost 700,000 people have been displaced since the latest Israeli incursion across Lebanon’s southern border. Strikes across the country killed 14, Lebanon’s health ministry said. An apartment in Beirut was also struck, terrifying residents."

Uses terms like 'widening humanitarian crisis,' '700,000 people have been displaced,' and 'terrifying residents' to evoke strong empathy and outrage over the scale of suffering and fear.

moral superiority
"Pope Leo laments death of numerous civilians in the ongoing Iran war and also expressed closeness to people in Lebanon, saying the country, targeted by Israeli strikes, was going through a “great trial.”"

Leverages the moral gravitas of the Pope to express sorrow and solidarity, aiming to elicit a sense of shared moral high ground and compassion from the reader.

outrage manufacturing
"The images from the Gold Coast will stay with us: Iranian female footballers on a bus, pressing the international SOS hand signal against the windows. Filming the crowd through the glass. At least one player crying as security guards escorted her aboard. Hundreds of Iranian-Australians surrounding the vehicle, lying in front of it, chanting: “Save our girls.” These women were fighting to be seen. And the world saw them."

Uses highly emotive imagery ('crying', 'SOS hand signal', 'lying in front of it', 'chanting: "Save our girls"') to manufacture outrage and sympathy for the players, presenting them as victims in a dramatic struggle.

fear engineering
"It controls people through fear, through threats to families, through handlers and surveillance and coercion."

Explicitly names and describes mechanisms of control ('fear,' 'threats to families,' 'coercion') to instill a sense of apprehension and fear regarding the actions of the 'Islamic Republic'.

outrage manufacturing
"A Republican senator has apologised for the US’s apparent bombing of a girl’s school in Iran which killed 175 people. Video released by Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency and verified by The New York Times appears to show a Tomahawk cruise missile striking a naval base beside a girls’ school in Minab. Mass funerals were held for the victims, mostly children, last week."

Highlights the tragic loss of '175 people,' 'mostly children,' in a 'girl’s school' bombing, combined with mention of 'mass funerals', to generate intense outrage and profound sorrow.

fear engineering
"'This is terrifying': Locals distraught at missile strike"

The direct quote 'This is terrifying' from a local, along with 'locals distraught at missile strike', directly conveys and seeks to elicit fear and distress in the reader.

fear engineering
"One of the greatest fears this morning was that an unexploded missile lay in the rubble. At the same time, a crowd of more than 100 people gathered in the street – some of them media, but many of them local people."

Highlights 'one of the greatest fears' — an 'unexploded missile' — to create a sense of ongoing danger and anxiety.

Narrative Analysis (PCP)

How the article reshapes thinking: Perception (what beliefs are targeted), Context (what information is shifted or omitted), and Permission (what behavior is being encouraged).

What it wants you to believe

The article aims to instill the belief that the conflict between Iran, Israel, and the US is widespread, catastrophic, and has severe humanitarian and economic consequences globally. It also attempts to shape the perception that Israel is a primary aggressor causing significant civilian harm, particularly in Lebanon, while Iran is reacting to perceived attacks. The plight of Iranian women, particularly the soccer team, is used to highlight the oppressive nature of the Iranian regime, garnering sympathy and moral condemnation for Iran's internal governance.

Context being shifted

The article shifts the context of the conflict from isolated military actions to an escalating, widespread 'war' (e.g., 'Israeli-US war on Iran,' 'no end to the Iran war in sight'), which normalizes the increased collateral damage and humanitarian crises reported. By presenting multiple, seemingly disparate incidents (Strait of Hormuz attacks, Dubai airport drone strikes, Israeli strikes on Lebanon, US bombing of Iranian school), it creates a perception of a chaotic, interconnected, and globally impactful conflict. The narrative about the Iranian women's soccer team shifts the lens from geopolitics to human rights abuses within Iran, linking the 'Iranian regime' to coercive tactics against its own citizens.

What it omits

The article largely omits the specific geopolitical history and provocations (e.g., previous Iranian actions, motivations for US/Israeli involvement in the region beyond 'war') that led to the current state of conflict. The motivations or targets of the attributed Iranian drone strikes near Dubai and attacks on cargo ships are not elaborated, beyond Iran 'vowing to control' a choke point. While reporting on Israeli strikes, the article largely omits potential military targets or justifications Israel might offer for these actions, focusing instead on the impact on civilians and humanitarian crisis. For the Iranian women's soccer team, the specific 'pressure through harassment' is not detailed, and the broader context of international sports politics or prior incidents involving Iranian athletes is not provided, making the coercion seem immediate and absolute.

Desired behavior

The reader is nudged towards a stance of heightened concern and alarm regarding the conflict's global impact, particularly its humanitarian and economic consequences. It subtly encourages a critical, if not condemnatory, view of both Israeli military actions in Lebanon and the Iranian regime's internal human rights practices. There is a general permission to feel sympathy for civilian victims and frustration at the ongoing violence, and potentially to accept the framing of generalized 'war' rather than a series of targeted engagements.

SMRP Pattern

Four manipulation maintenance tactics: Socializing the idea as normal, Minimizing concerns, Rationalizing with logic, and Projecting blame.

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Socializing
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Minimizing
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Rationalizing
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Projecting

Red Flags

High-severity indicators: silencing dissent, coordinated messaging, or weaponizing identity to shut down debate.

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Silencing indicator
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Controlled release (spokesperson test)

"Speculation remained over the health of Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, after the son of Iran’s president said, “he is healthy and there is no problem”. This is contrary to references in state media that Khamenei was wounded in the war, and reports that he was injured in the initial US-Israeli strike."

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Identity weaponization

Techniques Found(14)

Specific propaganda techniques identified using the SemEval-2023 academic taxonomy of 23 techniques across 6 categories.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"Israeli-US war on Iran"

Describing the conflict as an 'Israeli-US war on Iran' uses emotionally charged language to frame the involvement of Israel and the US as a direct, aggressive war against Iran, potentially evoking strong negative public sentiment.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"Israel’s attacks on Lebanon are causing a widening humanitarian crisis."

The phrase 'widening humanitarian crisis' uses emotionally charged language to highlight the severity and negative impact of Israeli actions, aiming to evoke sympathy and condemnation.

Exaggeration/MinimisationManipulative Wording
"terrifying residents."

While an apartment being struck is serious, stating it was 'terrifying residents' without further detail could be an exaggeration to amplify the emotional impact on the reader.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"Pope Leo laments death of civilians in war"

The word 'laments' is emotionally charged, suggesting deep sorrow and regret, which primes the reader to feel a similar emotional response to the deaths.

Appeal to ValuesJustification
"Pope Leo...expressed closeness to people in Lebanon, saying the country, targeted by Israeli strikes, was going through a “great trial.”"

This quote appeals to shared human values of empathy and compassion for those suffering, framing the situation in Lebanon as a 'great trial' to evoke a sympathetic response.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"Images from the Gold Coast will stay with us: Iranian female footballers on a bus, pressing the international SOS hand signal against the windows.Filming the crowd through the glass. At least one player crying as security guards escorted her aboard. Hundreds of Iranian-Australians surrounding the vehicle, lying in front of it, chanting: “Save our girls.”"

This description uses highly emotive and vivid imagery ('crying,' 'Save our girls,' 'lying in front of it') to create a strong emotional impact and elicit sympathy for the footballers, framing their situation as desperate and unjust.

SlogansCall
"Save our girls."

This is a brief, catchy, and emotionally charged phrase used by the crowd to summarize their plea and create a sense of urgency and shared purpose.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"The images from the Gold Coast will stay with us"

This phrase suggests a lasting, impactful, and possibly traumatic impression of the events, influencing the reader's perception of their severity.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"State television branded them traitors."

The word 'branded' carries a strong negative connotation, implying a harsh and unjust judgment, and 'traitors' is a highly inflammatory label, designed to evoke anger against the state television's actions.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"security handlers who had accompanied the squad did what the Islamic Republic always does: they applied pressure through harassment."

The phrase 'did what the Islamic Republic always does' is loaded, suggesting a pattern of oppressive behavior. 'Harassment' is also a negatively charged term.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"It controls people through fear, through threats to families, through handlers and surveillance and coercion."

This sentence uses a series of negatively charged words ('fear,' 'threats,' 'surveillance,' 'coercion') to paint a dark and oppressive picture of the Islamic Republic's methods, designed to arouse strong negative feelings in the reader.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"terrifying': Locals distraught at missile strike"

The words 'terrifying' and 'distraught' are emotionally charged, aiming to elicit a strong sense of fear and distress in the reader congruent with the experience of the locals.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"anguish among the residents of Beirut who have woken to the sound of missile strikes next door."

The word 'anguish' is emotionally loaded, conveying intense suffering and sorrow, which aims to evoke empathy and concern in the reader for the affected residents.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"shocking attack."

The word 'shocking' is used to emphasize the unexpected and disturbing nature of the attack, aiming to evoke a strong negative reaction from the reader.

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