How Algeria and Morocco manoeuvre the fallout of the war on Iran
Analysis Summary
This article wants you to believe that the US-Israeli war on Iran is deeply impacting the rivalry between Morocco and Algeria over Western Sahara. It uses strong, emotional wording to grab your attention and define opposing sides. While it mentions the Western Sahara dispute, it largely skips over its complex history to focus on how the current Middle East crisis makes both countries strategically maneuver for their own benefit.
Cross-Outlet PSYOP Detected
This article is part of a narrative being pushed across multiple outlets:
FATE Analysis
Four dimensions of psychological manipulation: how content captures Focus, exploits Authority, triggers Tribal identity, and engineers Emotion.
Focus signals
"The Maghreb is following the US-Israeli war on Iran and its expansion across the Middle East with particular interest, and for good reason: the geopolitical and economic implications of this major crisis will certainly impact regional balances in North Africa as well."
Presents the conflict as a 'major crisis' with significant and certain impacts, framing it as an event of extraordinary consequence for the region that demands attention.
"the Maghreb is therefore not simply observing developments as a concerned neighbour but is reading them as a historic moment of potential reshaping of regional balances."
Emphasizes the 'historic moment' and 'reshaping of regional balances' to suggest an extraordinary and potentially transformative period, elevating the perceived importance and novelty of the unfolding events.
Authority signals
""This position stems from the intersection of Morocco's historical hostility towards Tehran, its strategic cooperation with Washington and the sensitive diplomatic context surrounding the status of Western Sahara," Raouf Farrah, an Algerian independent political science researcher, told Middle East Eye."
Uses a 'political science researcher' to add weight and credibility to the analysis of Morocco's motivations, implying expert insight.
"Researcher Nacer Djabi, a former professor of sociology at the University of Algiers II and a researcher at the Algerian Centre for Research in Applied Economics and Development, told MEE that Morocco illustrates the Maghreb's political diversity..."
Leverages the academic credentials and institutional affiliations of Djabi ('former professor of sociology,' 'researcher at the Algerian Centre for Research...') to lend authority to his observations.
"“The Algerian authorities are in a delicate position," Farrah said."
Utilizes the opinion of 'Raouf Farrah, an Algerian independent political science researcher' to explain Algeria's stance, framing it as an expert assessment of a delicate situation.
"“A weakened but resilient Iran breathes new life into the Global South, and therefore into Algiers," he told MEE. Chahir also believes that if Washington chooses to arm the Iranian Kurds against Tehran, according to its strategic interests, the self-determination they aspire to will become "a tool of selective power and lose its legal neutrality and, with it, US credibility as a mediator on Western Sahara.""
Employs a 'Moroccan political scientist and former associate researcher' to provide a detailed analysis and prediction, giving his speculative assertions the weight of expert opinion.
Tribe signals
"Tehran has traditionally been allied with Algeria - and to a lesser extent Tunisia - while considering Morocco a hostile actor."
Establishes a clear division immediately between 'allied' and 'hostile' actors based on their relationship with Iran, creating a tribal distinction between nations.
"Morocco, on the other hand, sees the war as a further opportunity to strengthen its alliance with Washington and Israel - as well as the Gulf states - in anticipation of the ongoing negotiations on the fate of Western Sahara..."
Highlights Morocco's alignment with 'Washington and Israel' in direct contrast to Algeria's 'principles,' reinforcing an geopolitical 'us-vs-them' dynamic in the region.
"This stance by Rabat, however, runs counter to Moroccan public opinion. "In this context of escalation, the monarchy is facing mounting domestic pressure, as images of the American-Israeli strikes in Iran and Lebanon circulate widely in the public sphere," Farrah said. According to Djabi, "public opinion in the Maghreb region is very convergent and largely hostile to the Israeli-US war against Iran"."
Creates an 'us-vs-them' dynamic within Morocco itself, pitting the government's stance against 'Moroccan public opinion' and the broader 'public opinion in the Maghreb region,' implying a consensus among the people against the government's actions.
"According to Djabi, "public opinion in the Maghreb region is very convergent and largely hostile to the Israeli-US war against Iran"."
Suggests a broad, 'very convergent' and 'largely hostile' consensus among the Maghreb public against the 'Israeli-US war,' framing disagreement as an outlier.
Emotion signals
"Behind the bombs raining down on Tehran, the future of Western Sahara, alliances in the Sahel and the rivalry between the two North African heavyweights, Algeria and Morocco, are also being played out."
The phrase 'bombs raining down on Tehran' is vivid and evokes a sense of immediate danger and high stakes, creating urgency even though the article later mentions 'a military confrontation seems inconceivable at this stage'.
"However, the risks of internal unrest are limited in states that leave little room for challenging the established order. The people of the region "do not have the means to express their positions, due to the political stranglehold on the Maghreb street", Djabi said."
Mentions 'risks of internal unrest,' 'political stranglehold,' and lack of 'means to express their positions' to evoke concern about repression and potentially future instability due to unaddressed public sentiment.
"While a military confrontation seems inconceivable at this stage, despite a worrying arms race between the two countries, which are Africa's largest arms importers..."
The phrase 'worrying arms race' injects a subtle element of fear or unease about the potential for conflict, despite the immediate reassurance of no 'military confrontation'.
Narrative Analysis (PCP)
How the article reshapes thinking: Perception (what beliefs are targeted), Context (what information is shifted or omitted), and Permission (what behavior is being encouraged).
The article aims to instill the belief that the current Middle East crisis, particularly the US-Israeli war on Iran, is not just a distant event but a critical geopolitical pivot point that will profoundly and directly impact North African regional dynamics, specifically the rivalry between Morocco and Algeria over Western Sahara. It wants the reader to believe that each country is strategically leveraging the crisis to further its specific interests.
The article shifts the context of the Middle East conflict from its immediate causes and combatants to its instrumental use by regional actors (Morocco, Algeria) in North Africa. This shift makes the actions of Morocco and Algeria, as they align with or distance themselves from various global powers in response to the Middle East crisis, appear as natural, strategic, and self-interested maneuvers rather than solely ethical or ideological stances regarding the war itself.
The article omits significant detail on the long-standing, complex, and independent historical grievances and diplomatic efforts surrounding the Western Sahara conflict that predate and exist separate from the current Middle East crisis. While it mentions the dispute, the article creates a new context where the Western Sahara issue is seen primarily through the lens of the US-Israeli war on Iran and the immediate strategic maneuvering of Morocco and Algeria. The deep historical roots and international legal frameworks (beyond a single UN resolution) pertaining to Western Sahara are not elaborated, which makes the current power plays seem more solely driven by the immediate regional crisis.
The reader is subtly nudged to accept that international relations, even in the face of a significant conflict, are primarily driven by transactional diplomacy and national self-interest, particularly in the economic and geopolitical spheres. It encourages a detached, analytical stance towards the 'players' and their 'strategies' rather than a moral judgment of their actions in response to a 'war'. The reader is permitted to view the North African actors as pragmatically navigating a complex geopolitical landscape, making self-preservation and strategic gain the primary drivers.
SMRP Pattern
Four manipulation maintenance tactics: Socializing the idea as normal, Minimizing concerns, Rationalizing with logic, and Projecting blame.
""This stance by Rabat, however, runs counter to Moroccan public opinion. ... However, the risks of internal unrest are limited in states that leave little room for challenging the established order. The people of the region 'do not have the means to express their positions, due to the political stranglehold on the Maghreb street', Djabi said.""
""This position stems from the intersection of Morocco's historical hostility towards Tehran, its strategic cooperation with Washington and the sensitive diplomatic context surrounding the status of Western Sahara," Raouf Farrah, an Algerian independent political science researcher, told Middle East Eye."
Red Flags
High-severity indicators: silencing dissent, coordinated messaging, or weaponizing identity to shut down debate.
""We have our own strategy: diversify our partners, be less dependent on Western supply chains, and avoid any conflict during the remaining three years of Trump's term," the source told MEE. It is about "being able to play the US game of transactional diplomacy without compromising our principles", the source added."
Techniques Found(10)
Specific propaganda techniques identified using the SemEval-2023 academic taxonomy of 23 techniques across 6 categories.
"Behind the bombs raining down on Tehran"
The phrase 'bombs raining down on Tehran' is highly evocative and implies widespread, indiscriminate destruction, which is disproportionate to what would typically be implied by 'attacks' or 'strikes' in a geopolitical context.
"US-Israeli war on Iran"
Framing the conflict as a 'war on Iran' uses emotionally charged language to suggest a full-scale military conflict, which may be an overstatement of the actual situation, and implies a direct and unified war effort by both the US and Israel against Iran.
"radically different approaches"
The word 'radically' exaggerates the difference in approaches, suggesting an extreme divergence rather than simply 'different' or 'divergent' approaches.
"bombs raining down on Tehran"
This phrase uses highly evocative and dramatic imagery to describe military action, implying extensive and forceful bombardment, which can emotionally impact the reader.
"the monarchy is facing mounting domestic pressure, as images of the American-Israeli strikes in Iran and Lebanon circulate widely in the public sphere"
The phrase 'mounting domestic pressure' exaggerates the extent of internal opposition by implying a significant and growing threat, when the article later states that 'the risks of internal unrest are limited in states that leave little room for challenging the established order.'
"states that leave little room for challenging the established order"
This is a vague euphemism for authoritarian or repressive regimes, avoiding direct and potentially controversial language to describe political control.
"the political stranglehold on the Maghreb street"
This phrase is vague and metaphorical, describing political control over public opinion without specifying the mechanisms or agents of this 'stranglehold,' leaving it open to interpretation.
"sanctioning the full-fledged Moroccan occupation of Western Sahara"
The term 'full-fledged Moroccan occupation' uses emotionally charged language to describe Morocco's presence in Western Sahara, framing it in a negative and absolute light by emphasizing 'occupation' rather than 'control' or 'administration'.
"arms race between the two countries, which are Africa's largest arms importers"
The term 'arms race' creates a sense of imminent danger and escalating conflict, even though the article explicitly states 'a military confrontation seems inconceivable at this stage'.
"tradition of championing oppressed groups aspiring to self-determination, particularly the Palestinians"
This quote appeals to the widely shared value of supporting oppressed groups and self-determination, using it to frame Algeria's historical stance in a positive light.