Berlin is rearming, and its neighbors are weighing the risks and benefits of the new German hegemony

english.elpais.com·Marc Bassets
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Noticeable — persuasion techniques worth noting

Germany is rearming its military in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and concerns about former President Trump, with a goal of becoming a leading conventional force in Europe. The article argues this move is necessary for European security, despite historical anxieties, by quoting officials who say Germany will act responsibly within NATO.

FATE Analysis

Four dimensions of psychological manipulation: how content captures Focus, exploits Authority, triggers Tribal identity, and engineers Emotion.

Focus6/10Authority7/10Tribe6/10Emotion6/10
FFocus
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AAuthority
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TTribe
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EEmotion
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Focus signals

unprecedented framing
"Germany is undergoing another transformation. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and Donald Trump’s return to the White House a year ago have changed everything."

This frames the current situation as a pivotal, unprecedented moment for Germany, suggesting a dramatic shift from its post-WWII identity as a peaceful power, thereby demanding reader attention to this significant change.

novelty spike
"It is time for rearmament, and as always when this country militarizes, questions arise. Are the ghosts of the past returning? Or is it a blessing that Germany is finally taking its defense seriously?"

The article uses the 'time for rearmament' as a novelty spike, presenting a shift in focus for Germany's military posture, and posing a question designed to grab attention by hinting at historical anxieties ('ghosts of the past').

attention capture
"The scale of Germany’s rearmament, as detailed by Fix in her article, is staggering. In 2025, Germany spent more on defense than any other country, in absolute terms. Its military budget is the fourth-largest in the world. By 2029, it will exceed €150 billion ($174 billion) annually, triple the amount spent in 2002."

Quantifying the rearmament with 'staggering' figures and comparisons ('fourth-largest in the world', 'triple the amount') serves as a strong novelty spike, highlighting the extraordinary nature of the development to capture and hold the reader's attention.

Authority signals

expert appeal
"“What prevails in Europe right now, among our partners, is the hope that Germany will do its duty,” says Nils Schmid, Deputy Defense Minister and Social Democratic MP."

Leverages the perceived authority of a Deputy Defense Minister and MP to legitimize the claim about European partners' sentiment and Germany's 'duty,' framing it as an officially endorsed view.

expert appeal
"“German rearmament is necessary for Europe,” says historian Liana Fix, affiliated with the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations think tank, in a telephone interview."

Deploys the authority of a 'historian' associated with a prominent 'U.S. Council on Foreign Relations think tank' to assert the necessity of German rearmament for Europe, lending significant intellectual weight to the argument.

institutional authority
"Fix has opened the discussion in political and academic forums by publishing an article in the journal Foreign Affairs entitled “Europe’s Next Hegemon: The Perils of German Power.”"

Citing publication in 'Foreign Affairs,' a highly respected journal, strengthens the authority of Liana Fix's claims and the article's central theme of German power, suggesting that the topic is recognized and debated at the highest levels of foreign policy discourse.

expert appeal
"Paul Maurice, head of Franco-German relations at the French Institute of International Relations, explains that “in terms of personnel recruitment, [Germany] is far from having the largest army in Europe.”"

Uses the title and affiliation of Paul Maurice ('head of Franco-German relations at the French Institute of International Relations') to add credibility to the assessment of Germany's military capacity and its implications.

expert appeal
"“It’s schizophrenic,” observes historian Pawel Machcewicz, “because they accuse Germany of being pro-Russian and, at the same time, when Germany builds a strong army, they say it’s a German attempt to dominate Europe.”"

Leverages the authority of 'historian Pawel Machcewicz' to characterize a specific opposing viewpoint as 'schizophrenic,' effectively dismissing it and subtly guiding the reader towards accepting a more favorable interpretation of Germany's actions.

Tribe signals

us vs them
"The response ranges from those who, on the one hand, celebrate that Europe’s largest economy is assuming its responsibilities in the face of the Russian threat and American hostility — a gain for the entire EU — to those who worry that increased defense spending will create an imbalance among the 27 member states and, in the long run, lead to tensions."

Establishes a clear division ('those who celebrate' vs. 'those who worry') which can foster an 'us-vs-them' dynamic among readers based on their stance on German rearmament, potentially polarizing the discussion.

identity weaponization
"And there is yet another, more hypothetical and, for many, worrisome scenario: that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party comes to power and this formidable arsenal falls into its hands."

Weaponizes the identity of the 'far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party' by positing a 'worrisome scenario' where a powerful military 'falls into its hands,' implicitly signaling to readers who dislike the AfD that this potential outcome is cause for alarm and thus influencing their perspective on rearmament.

us vs them
"In Poland, the European partner that spends the most on defense proportionally, already approaching 5% of GDP, pro-Europeans believe that German rearmament is good news for a Europe threatened by Russia. The nationalist right, on the other hand, is stirring up historical fears of German militarism."

Creates a distinct 'us-vs-them' tribal dynamic within Poland, contrasting 'pro-Europeans' (who see German rearmament positively) with the 'nationalist right' (who 'stir up historical fears'). This categorizes reader groups based on their political alignment regarding a complex issue.

Emotion signals

fear engineering
"But that was before the defeat of 1945 and year zero. Before the Cold War. Before 1990 and reunification, the refounding of the Federal Republic as a European power of peace, an economic giant, and a political and military dwarf."

This passage subtly engineers fear by invoking the historical 'defeat of 1945 and year zero,' implicitly reminding readers of a traumatic past that Germany, as a peaceful power, was meant to overcome, and suggesting that the current transformation might jeopardize this hard-won peace.

fear engineering
"Are the ghosts of the past returning? Or is it a blessing that Germany is finally taking its defense seriously?"

This rhetorical question explicitly invokes 'ghosts of the past,' a highly emotionally charged phrase for Germany, designed to trigger fear of historical repetition and past militarism, while simultaneously offering an alternative, more positive, but still emotionally laden, framing.

fear engineering
"And there is yet another, more hypothetical and, for many, worrisome scenario: that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party comes to power and this formidable arsenal falls into its hands."

This statement directly engineers fear by presenting a 'worrisome scenario' involving the far-right AfD gaining control of a 'formidable arsenal,' tapping into anxieties about extremism and potential misuse of military power.

urgency
"The balance has been disrupted, although Paris retains an all-powerful card: the atomic bomb. It is the only EU country that possesses it."

The phrase 'The balance has been disrupted' creates a sense of urgency and instability, implying that a critical equilibrium has been disturbed, which naturally evokes concern about future geopolitical shifts.

Narrative Analysis (PCP)

How the article reshapes thinking: Perception (what beliefs are targeted), Context (what information is shifted or omitted), and Permission (what behavior is being encouraged).

What it wants you to believe

The article aims to install the belief that German rearmament is a necessary and rational response to current geopolitical realities (Russia, Trump) and that concerns about a resurgence of German militarism are outdated or misinformed. It wants the reader to believe that Germany, despite its past, can now be trusted with significant military power within a European and NATO framework. It also subtly suggests that denying Germany this role is ignoring its responsibility and potentially undermining European security.

Context being shifted

The article shifts the context from Germany's historical role as a military aggressor to its current role as a 'European power of peace' and an 'economic giant' now facing new external threats. This shift normalizes the idea of German military resurgence by framing it as a pragmatic, defensive necessity in a changed world, rather than a revival of problematic historical patterns. The article highlights external pressures (Russia's invasion, Trump) as catalysts, making Germany's military build-up seem reactive and thus acceptable.

What it omits

The article omits deeper historical context regarding the specific nature of German militarism that led to its past conflicts, focusing more broadly on 'former power' and 'defeat.' While acknowledging past fears, it doesn't delve into the historical nuances that might fuel contemporary anxieties, instead presenting them largely as 'old demons.' It also largely omits discussions from within Germany (beyond a mention of 'questions arise') regarding pacifist traditions, the moral implications of rearmament, or the potential for domestic political shifts to alter its military doctrine, beyond a brief mention of the AfD as a 'hypothetical' scenario.

Desired behavior

The article subtly grants permission for readers to dismiss historical anxieties about German military power as outdated, and implicitly encourages an acceptance or even approval of Germany's significant rearmament, viewing it as a necessary contribution to European security and stability. It permits the reader to see Germany's military growth as a responsible act rather than a cause for alarm.

SMRP Pattern

Four manipulation maintenance tactics: Socializing the idea as normal, Minimizing concerns, Rationalizing with logic, and Projecting blame.

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Socializing
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Minimizing
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Rationalizing

"Germany is undergoing another transformation. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and Donald Trump’s return to the White House a year ago have changed everything. Christian Democratic Chancellor Friedrich Merz, leading a coalition with the Social Democrats, has set out to make the Bundeswehr — the federal army — the strongest conventional (i.e., non-nuclear) armed forces in Europe. It is time for rearmament, and as always when this country militarizes, questions arise."

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Projecting

Red Flags

High-severity indicators: silencing dissent, coordinated messaging, or weaponizing identity to shut down debate.

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Silencing indicator
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Controlled release (spokesperson test)

""What prevails in Europe right now, among our partners, is the hope that Germany will do its duty,” says Nils Schmid, Deputy Defense Minister and Social Democratic MP. He quotes a statement made by the current Polish Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, in 2011, during the financial crisis: “I fear German inaction less than German power.” “That remains true,” Schmid tells EL PAÍS. “Since German troops are fully integrated into NATO’s common command and German soldiers are fully committed to Alliance tasks,” he guarantees, “there is no risk of Germany acting independently." / "I think that, for our European partners, it is time to examine whether the old demons of history define their view of Germany,” Schmid points out. “Or whether it is the experience of the last few decades that defines it, which has shown that Germany is a stable democracy and a country that looks to Europe.”"

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Identity weaponization

Techniques Found(5)

Specific propaganda techniques identified using the SemEval-2023 academic taxonomy of 23 techniques across 6 categories.

False DilemmaSimplification
"Are the ghosts of the past returning? Or is it a blessing that Germany is finally taking its defense seriously?"

This presents only two extreme options for interpreting Germany's rearmament, implying there are no other possible interpretations or nuances to the situation.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"formidable arsenal"

The word 'formidable' carries a strong connotation of great power and potential for harm, especially when discussing military equipment falling into the hands of a potentially undesirable political party. It aims to evoke a sense of alarm.

Appeal to Fear/PrejudiceJustification
"And there is yet another, more hypothetical and, for many, worrisome scenario: that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party comes to power and this formidable arsenal falls into its hands."

This statement uses the potential rise of a far-right party and the control of a 'formidable arsenal' to evoke fear and prejudice against the AfD, implicitly warning readers about the dangers of such a political outcome.

Exaggeration/MinimisationManipulative Wording
"If the country continues on this path,” the expert concludes, “it will once again be a major military power before 2030.”"

While significant, stating Germany will 'once again' be a 'major military power' potentially exaggerates the speed and extent of its re-emergence by invoking historical connotations of its past military strength, which might not be entirely comparable to the current context.

Loaded LanguageManipulative Wording
"old demons of history"

This phrase uses emotionally charged language to refer to past negative perceptions or historical grievances concerning Germany, framing them as irrational 'demons' that should be overcome.

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