Juan Gabriel Tokatlian: ‘If Peru, Colombia, and Brazil shift to the right, the US will have the bulk of Latin America under its influence’
Analysis Summary
This article tries to convince you that the world is heading towards a dangerous period where international rules are ignored, led by a 'reactionary international' group influenced by the US. It uses quotes from experts and authority figures to make its claims sound more credible, but it leaves out why some countries might genuinely align with the US or the justifications the US and Israel might have for their actions, which makes the narrative appear more one-sided than it truly is.
FATE Analysis
Four dimensions of psychological manipulation: how content captures Focus, exploits Authority, triggers Tribal identity, and engineers Emotion.
Focus signals
"I mean, this event could be the beginning of the end for international law as we know it, in terms of the use of force, its legality, and its legitimacy."
This statement uses strong, definitive language to frame the events as a possibly unprecedented destruction of the existing international legal framework, creating a sense of a critical, never-before-seen moment.
"And when the role of international law as a framework for coexistence is erased, we enter terra incógnita."
The term 'terra incognita' evokes a sense of entering an unknown and potentially dangerous era, suggesting a significant, novel shift in global affairs that demands attention.
"this is a conflict that reveals — perhaps more than any other since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Hamas’s attack in southern Israel and the fierce retaliation by Netanyahu’s government, up to Iran 2025 — a dramatic breakdown of international law."
This positions the current events as uniquely significant and a major turning point, potentially even more so than other recent major conflicts, to emphasize its novelty and importance.
Authority signals
"sociologist Juan Gabriel Tokatlian, 72, a specialist in international relations"
The article heavily relies on the authority of Juan Gabriel Tokatlian, introducing him with his profession, age (suggesting experience), and specific area of expertise to lend credibility to his pronouncements.
"Tokatlian, a professor at the Torcuato Di Tella University and author of Consejos no solicitados sobre política internacional (Unsolicited Advice on International Politics)."
Further reinforces Tokatlian's authority by listing his academic position at a university and citing a publication, implying deep knowledge and extensive experience in the field.
"the renowned U.S. diplomat and strategist George F. Kennan"
The article opens by invoking the historical authority of a 'renowned' diplomat and strategist, whose 'stark warning' sets a serious and legitimate tone for the subsequent analysis, drawing on historical credibility.
"I asked an ambassador how relations with Argentina were going, and he told me he didn’t know because it was part of “the 191 countries.”"
Citing an unnamed 'ambassador' lends an air of insider knowledge and professional perspective, even if the quote is about a lack of knowledge, it comes from an authoritative source.
Tribe signals
"the United States needed to adopt a much tougher stance toward regions where communist sympathies were growing."
This immediately establishes an 'us (U.S.) vs. them (communist sympathies)' dynamic, framing international relations in terms of ideological struggle and confrontation.
"making clear that the countries of Latin America needed the U.S. far more than the U.S. needed them. And that, if they did not cooperate, they would be disciplined."
This creates a power dynamic that fosters an 'us (U.S.) vs. them (Latin American countries)' dichotomy, where 'them' are expected to submit or face 'discipline,' implying a punitive consequence for non-conformity.
"Last Saturday, 12 Latin American leaders traveled to Miami to take part in Shield of the Americas, a summit of allies convened by Trump at one of his golf clubs."
Depicts a clear 'us' group (Trump and his 'allies') versus an implied 'them' (those not aligned with this "Shield" project), establishing a political tribal affiliation.
"Tokatlian describes the rise of a 'reactionary international,' a transnational network fueled by think tanks and magnates who mobilize resources for a political project promising to restore a supposedly glorious past."
This explicitly defines a 'them' (the 'reactionary international') with negative connotations, presenting them as a cohesive, well-resourced, and ideologically driven opposing force, thereby creating an 'us vs. them' narrative for readers not part of this group.
"Although leaders like Chile’s José Antonio Kast, Milei, and Trump have different styles and operate in different contexts, they share a similar political language and belong to the same ideological family that is expanding globally."
This statement groups diverse political figures under a single 'ideological family,' effectively weaponizing this shared ideology as a tribal marker and framing it as a global expansion, which can create alarm and solidify existing tribal divides.
"If this process were to succeed, it would be like going back to the 1960s and 1970s, when most of the region’s governments were aligned with the United States because of the fight against communism and because many were military regimes. Now they are democratic, they are not fighting anyone, but they will be much more ideologically aligned."
This draws a stark contrast between a feared past (aligned with the US due to anti-communism and military regimes) and the present, implying that ideological alignment today is a negative reversion, thus creating an 'us' (those who oppose this reversion) versus 'them' (those who would lead to this alignment).
Emotion signals
"the United States needed to adopt a much tougher stance toward regions where communist sympathies were growing... if they did not cooperate, they would be disciplined."
This invokes fear of punitive 'discipline' for non-compliance, creating an emotional undercurrent of potential negative consequences for Latin American nations.
"this is a conflict that reveals... a dramatic breakdown of international law."
The phrase 'dramatic breakdown' suggests a catastrophic failure, evoking fear about the unraveling of established global order and stability.
"this event could be the beginning of the end for international law as we know it, in terms of the use of force, its legality, and its legitimacy."
This dire prediction directly instills fear, framing the current events as an existential threat to the foundational principles of international relations.
"What consequences could this breakdown of rules have — what does it open the door to? A. To the arbitrariness of the powerful becoming the norm. And to objectives, whether regional or global, being imposed through submission."
This elicits fear regarding a future where 'arbitrariness of the powerful' and 'submission' become the norm, suggesting a loss of autonomy and justice.
"And when the role of international law as a framework for coexistence is erased, we enter terra incógnita."
The prospect of entering 'terra incognita' when the 'framework for coexistence is erased' evokes fear of the unknown, instability, and potential chaos.
Narrative Analysis (PCP)
How the article reshapes thinking: Perception (what beliefs are targeted), Context (what information is shifted or omitted), and Permission (what behavior is being encouraged).
The article aims to instill the belief that the current geopolitical landscape is deteriorating towards an era of arbitrary power and disregard for international law, driven by a 'reactionary international' that is consolidating power in Latin America under US influence. Readers should believe that figures like Trump and Milei are part of a coordinated, well-resourced movement that prioritizes power and cultural restructuring over national interests and international norms.
The article shifts the context of individual geopolitical events (e.g., US/Israeli actions against Iran, Milei's foreign policy, Latin American leaders meeting with Trump) from being distinct, policy-driven decisions to being interconnected elements of a grand, sinister 'reactionary international' project. This framing makes it natural to view these varied actions as proof of a concerted effort to dismantle international norms and exert hegemonic control.
The article omits detailed context regarding the specific justifications or intelligence cited by the US and Israel for their actions against Iran, instead focusing solely on the lack of international legitimacy from the perspective of international law. It also omits an in-depth exploration of the internal political and economic factors that might lead Latin American countries to align with the US, beyond the general assertion of 'domination' or Milei's alleged financial dependence on Trump's bailout. This omission strengthens the narrative that these alignments are solely products of external, manipulative forces.
The reader is nudged toward a stance of alarm and distrust regarding the current geopolitical direction, especially concerning US foreign policy and conservative political movements. They are implicitly encouraged to view the actions of the 'reactionary international' as a grave threat to international stability and national sovereignty, fostering a generalized political opposition to the described trends.
SMRP Pattern
Four manipulation maintenance tactics: Socializing the idea as normal, Minimizing concerns, Rationalizing with logic, and Projecting blame.
"In his view, for the sustainability of his political project, he only needs the United States. Some time ago, I asked an ambassador how relations with Argentina were going, and he told me he didn’t know because it was part of “the 191 countries.” He was referring to the group of countries outside the United States and Israel with which the Milei government directly has no relations."
Red Flags
High-severity indicators: silencing dissent, coordinated messaging, or weaponizing identity to shut down debate.
Techniques Found(14)
Specific propaganda techniques identified using the SemEval-2023 academic taxonomy of 23 techniques across 6 categories.
"In 1950, the renowned U.S. diplomat and strategist George F. Kennan — remembered as the architect of the so‑called containment doctrine against the Soviet Union — sent a memorandum to the secretary of state with a stark warning: the United States needed to adopt a much tougher stance toward regions where communist sympathies were growing."
The article opens by citing George F. Kennan, a historical figure recognized for his strategic acumen, to set a historical precedent and lend weight to the presented narrative about US foreign policy and its perceived resurgence under Trump. This invokes his authority to establish a particular framing of US actions.
"that logic of domination and discipline appears to have found new life."
The words 'domination' and 'discipline' are used to describe US foreign policy, carrying strong negative connotations of control and subjugation. This framing pre-disposes the reader to view the described US actions pejoratively.
"And with Donald Trump back in the White House for a second time, that logic of domination and discipline appears to have found new life. And, as Argentine sociologist Juan Gabriel Tokatlian, 72, a specialist in international relations, warns, it is beginning to translate into concrete actions."
The phrase 'found new life' combined with 'domination and discipline' strongly implies a negative resurgence of aggressive US policy. The subsequent 'warns' from the expert reinforces this negative framing.
"And, as Argentine sociologist Juan Gabriel Tokatlian, 72, a specialist in international relations, warns, it is beginning to translate into concrete actions."
The article uses the credentials and age of Juan Gabriel Tokatlian (Argentine sociologist, 72, specialist in international relations) to bolster the credibility of the statement that US 'logic of domination and discipline' is 'beginning to translate into concrete actions.' This relies on his perceived expertise to support a specific interpretation of events.
"a dramatic breakdown of international law."
The phrase 'dramatic breakdown' emphasizes the severity and scale of the perceived disregard for international law, potentially overstating the extent of the breakdown to heighten alarm among readers.
"I mean, this event could be the beginning of the end for international law as we know it, in terms of the use of force, its legality, and its legitimacy."
The phrase 'beginning of the end' is an emotionally charged and hyperbolic statement that projects a dire and catastrophic future for international law, framing the current events as extremely significant and negative.
"To the arbitrariness of the powerful becoming the norm. And to objectives, whether regional or global, being imposed through submission."
The terms 'arbitrariness,' 'powerful,' and 'submission' are emotionally charged and carry negative connotations, suggesting an unjust and oppressive global order. This language aims to evoke a strong negative reaction from the reader regarding the consequences outlined.
"it’s no longer a question of multilateralism failing — which it has again — but that an architecture that has guided us since 1945 has collapsed."
The claim that 'an architecture that has guided us since 1945 has collapsed' is a very strong assertion that exaggerates the current state of international relations. While multilateralism may be struggling, to claim the entire post-1945 architecture has 'collapsed' is a significant overstatement designed to evoke alarm.
"The reactionary international"
The term 'reactionary' is inherently pejorative, used to describe political ideologies that seek to return to a previous state, often implying an opposition to progress or enlightenment. This label immediately frames the described group negatively.
"a transnational network fueled by think tanks and magnates who mobilize resources for a political project promising to restore a supposedly glorious past."
The phrase 'fueled by think tanks and magnates' suggests a sinister, well-funded, and elite-driven agenda. 'Supposedly glorious past' implies a deceptive or false promise, further painting the project negatively.
"the “totem” of the reactionary international, as you describe Trump."
Calling Trump the 'totem' of the 'reactionary international' labels him as a central, symbolic figure of a group already described with negative connotations. This is a direct attack through labeling rather than an argument against his policies.
"Trump now has a volunteer army in Latin America."
The phrase 'volunteer army' is highly emotive and suggestive of militaristic control or fervent, unquestioning loyalty. It implies a subservient and mobilized force, rather than independent political actors, which carries a strong negative connotation regarding Latin American leaders' autonomy.
"anachronistic worldview, lacking nuance and enough flexibility."
Describing Milei's government as having an 'anachronistic worldview, lacking nuance and enough flexibility' uses highly critical and disparaging terms to dismiss his foreign policy approach without offering specific counter-arguments for each point. 'Anachronistic' implies outdated, 'lacking nuance' suggests simplistic, and 'lacking flexibility' implies rigid or stubborn.
"refused to negotiate with Venezuelan authorities for dogmatic reasons."
The term 'dogmatic reasons' is used to negatively characterize the Milei government's stance. 'Dogmatic' implies an adherence to unproven beliefs or principles, suggesting inflexibility and unreasonableness without explaining the specific rationale.