How Turkey Is Making A Bid To Bring Back A Modern Ottoman Empire
Analysis Summary
This article claims that Turkey, led by President Erdogan, is attempting to revive the Ottoman Empire by creating a military alliance with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan called the "Mecca Joint Defence Agreement." This alliance, according to a specific think tank, aims to make Turkey the dominant power in the Middle East, potentially asserting control over places like Jerusalem and Gaza, while counterbalancing Iranian influence.
Cross-Outlet PSYOP Detected
This article is part of a narrative being pushed across multiple outlets:
FATE Analysis
Four dimensions of psychological manipulation: how content captures Focus, exploits Authority, triggers Tribal identity, and engineers Emotion.
Focus signals
"Turkey’s mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is a step toward the ultimate ambition of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: to make Ankara a powerhouse across the entire territory of the old Ottoman Empire."
This opening sentence frames the pact as a significant, unprecedented move towards a grand, potentially destabilizing ambition, immediately capturing attention with a sense of high stakes and a looming historical resurgence.
"The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, signed in Mecca on August 7 by Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, commits the three countries to a NATO-type alliance among Sunni states that would treat an attack on any one of them as an attack on all."
Presents a 'new' and 'NATO-type' alliance, highlighting its novelty and potential for significant geopolitical shifts, thus creating a spike in interest.
"The pact will help counterbalance Iranian regional power, but it will also position Turkey as the military and political leader of a “Sunni ring of fire,” advancing the Turkish president’s vision of a modern Ottoman sphere of influence, according to Chaim Silberstein, the chairman of the Jerusalem Center for Applied Policy (JCAP)."
The phrase 'Sunni ring of fire' and 'modern Ottoman sphere of influence' are vivid, attention-grabbing metaphors that suggest a dramatic and potentially volatile new geopolitical reality.
Authority signals
"according to Chaim Silberstein, the chairman of the Jerusalem Center for Applied Policy (JCAP)."
The article heavily relies on the interpretations and analyses of a single expert, Chaim Silberstein, chairman of the Jerusalem Center for Applied Policy (JCAP), to shape the narrative and provide credibility to its claims about Erdogan's ambitions. This repeated invocation of Silberstein and JCAP serves to buttress the article's core thesis.
"In the recent report, “Exposing Erdogan’s Plan for Palestine,” his organization examined a 758-page document published by Erdogan’s communications directorate covering the Gaza war from Oct. 7, 2023, through April 20, 2024."
The article legitimizes JCAP's claims by referencing their 'recent report' and its examination of a '758-page document,' implying rigorous, authoritative research. The sheer volume of the document and the institutional backing of JCAP lend weight to the subsequent interpretations, aiming to make the conclusions seem unassailable.
"JCAP argues that this Ottoman narrative allows Turkey to present itself as a 'civilization heir with a unique, inherited claim to Jerusalem — one that no Arab state, and certainly no Western power, can contest on equal terms.' The report says this framing 'converts a geopolitical ambition into an inheritance.'"
The article consistently presents JCAP's interpretations as established facts ('JCAP argues,' 'The report says'), using its perceived authority to define Erdogan's motivations and the implications of his actions.
"In JCAP’s “Turkey’s Phased Plan to Conquer Jerusalem” report, it describes the series of steps Turkey could take to establish itself as the patron of Jerusalem and its holy sites."
This phrase, referencing another JCAP report with a dramatic title, 'Turkey’s Phased Plan to Conquer Jerusalem,' uses the institutional authority of JCAP to present a detailed, alarming roadmap of alleged Turkish intentions, implicitly suggesting these plans are real and credible because an expert institution has 'described' them.
Tribe signals
"Turkey’s mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is a step toward the ultimate ambition of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: to make Ankara a powerhouse across the entire territory of the old Ottoman Empire."
This establishes an 'us vs. them' dynamic by presenting Erdogan's ambition as a threatening, expansive force aiming to dominate a vast territory, implicitly positioning other regional actors and Western interests as 'them' who would be opposed or threatened by this ambition.
"The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement...commits the three countries to a NATO-type alliance among Sunni states that would treat an attack on any one of them as an attack on all."
This weaponizes religious identity ('Sunni states') by framing the alliance along sectarian lines, suggesting a unified bloc based on religious identity. This creates a clear 'us' (Sunni alliance) and implicitly 'them' (non-Sunni entities or those outside the alliance).
"The pact will help counterbalance Iranian regional power, but it will also position Turkey as the military and political leader of a “Sunni ring of fire,” advancing the Turkish president’s vision of a modern Ottoman sphere of influence, according to Chaim Silberstein, the chairman of the Jerusalem Center for Applied Policy (JCAP)."
This quote reinforces the 'us vs. them' dynamic by explicitly contrasting Turkish/Sunni power with Iranian power and introducing the 'Sunni ring of fire' concept, suggesting a cohesive, potentially aggressive Sunni bloc under Turkish leadership. This creates an implicit 'other' against whom this 'ring of fire' is directed.
"In Silberstein’s view, the alliance also gives Erdogan a way to unite otherwise divided Sunni states around a common adversary: Israel."
This directly frames the alliance as forming an 'us' (Sunni states) against a clear 'them' (Israel), explicitly stating that Israel serves as the unifying 'adversary'. This is a direct invocation of an us-vs-them dynamic based on geopolitical and religious lines.
"But the prospect of a more powerful Turkey also comes with concerns about the man directing it. Erdogan has a long record of human rights abuses, Islamist politics, and hostility toward the West. His government has cracked down on journalists, political opponents, and Kurdish politicians, while Erdogan has increasingly embraced an Islamist vision for Turkey and cultivated relationships with U.S. adversaries, including Russia and Iran."
This paragraph creates a strong 'us vs. them' dynamic by portraying Erdogan as hostile to 'the West,' a human rights abuser, and aligned with 'U.S. adversaries.' It implicitly positions 'the West' (and by extension the reader) as being in opposition to Erdogan and his vision, thereby tribalizing the political landscape.
Emotion signals
"Turkey’s mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is a step toward the ultimate ambition of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: to make Ankara a powerhouse across the entire territory of the old Ottoman Empire."
This opening statement immediately invokes a sense of potential regional upheaval and historical resurgence ('old Ottoman Empire') which can be interpreted as alarming or threatening to existing power structures, engineering a sense of unease or fear about Turkey's ambitions.
"The pact will help counterbalance Iranian regional power, but it will also position Turkey as the military and political leader of a “Sunni ring of fire,” advancing the Turkish president’s vision of a modern Ottoman sphere of influence, according to Chaim Silberstein, the chairman of the Jerusalem Center for Applied Policy (JCAP)."
The phrase 'Sunni ring of fire' carries a strong emotional charge, implying a volatile, aggressive, and potentially destructive regional bloc. This language aims to evoke alarm and outrage at the prospect of such a development and Erdogan's perceived role in it.
"In Silberstein’s view, the alliance also gives Erdogan a way to unite otherwise divided Sunni states around a common adversary: Israel. He sees Jerusalem as particularly powerful in that regard, arguing that the city can serve as a shared cause among countries with otherwise competing interests — and one with deep historical resonance for Turkey, whose Ottoman predecessors ruled Jerusalem for roughly 400 years."
This suggests that Erdogan is deliberately exploiting the sensitive issue of Jerusalem and historical grievances to unify states against Israel, a tactic likely to provoke strong emotional responses, including anger and concern, especially among those who view Israel as an ally.
"But the prospect of a more powerful Turkey also comes with concerns about the man directing it. Erdogan has a long record of human rights abuses, Islamist politics, and hostility toward the West. His government has cracked down on journalists, political opponents, and Kurdish politicians, while Erdogan has increasingly embraced an Islamist vision for Turkey and cultivated relationships with U.S. adversaries, including Russia and Iran."
This paragraph is designed to instill fear and alarm by listing a litany of Erdogan's alleged negative traits and actions: 'human rights abuses,' 'Islamist politics,' 'hostility toward the West,' 'crackdowns,' and 'cultivated relationships with U.S. adversaries.' This cumulative effect aims to paint him as a dangerous and untrustworthy leader, generating fear about a more powerful Turkey under his command.
"Erdogan has compared Netanyahu to Adolf Hitler, and his administration has called for Israeli leaders to face trials like those of Nazi officials."
These specific comparisons are highly inflammatory and designed to provoke outrage. Equating a modern leader with Hitler and calling for trials like Nazi officials are extreme rhetorical tactics intended to shock and anger the reader, linking Erdogan directly to deeply offensive historical atrocities.
Narrative Analysis (PCP)
How the article reshapes thinking: Perception (what beliefs are targeted), Context (what information is shifted or omitted), and Permission (what behavior is being encouraged).
The article aims to install the belief that Turkey, under Erdogan, is pursuing an expansionist, aggressive, and potentially dangerous agenda to resurrect Ottoman influence, leveraging alliances and religious identity to achieve regional hegemony. This includes a specific, multi-phased plan to assert control over Jerusalem and Gaza, and to fill a power vacuum left by Iran.
The article shifts the context of Turkey's foreign policy from that of a NATO ally and regional power to that of a revisionist state with a 'Sunni ring of fire' ambition. By repeatedly invoking the 'old Ottoman Empire,' 'modern Ottoman sphere of influence,' and 'Ottoman narrative,' it frames current events through a historical lens of past imperial dominance, making Erdogan's actions appear as a revivalist quest rather than contemporary political strategy. The consistent focus on JCAP's interpretations also frames Turkish actions through a specific, critical analytical lens.
The article heavily relies on the interpretations of one think tank, JCAP, and its chairman, Chaim Silberstein, presenting their analysis as the primary lens through which to understand Turkey's actions. It omits alternative geopolitical analyses or perspectives from Turkish officials, other regional experts, or organizations that might offer different explanations for Turkey's motivations or the nature of the 'Mecca Joint Defence Agreement.' This omission strengthens the narrative of an aggressive, expansionist Turkey by not providing counter-arguments or broader diplomatic considerations beyond JCAP's framework. It also omits the direct stated purposes of the Mecca agreement from the signatories, focusing instead on Silberstein's interpretation of Erdogan's underlying 'ambition.'
The article implicitly grants permission for readers to view Turkey and Erdogan with suspicion and alarm, to interpret their actions through a framework of historical expansionism, and to support measures to contain or counter what is presented as Ankara's dangerous regional ambitions. It also allows for the dismissal of Turkey's stated intentions regarding alliances and regional engagement as merely cover for a larger, more aggressive agenda.
SMRP Pattern
Four manipulation maintenance tactics: Socializing the idea as normal, Minimizing concerns, Rationalizing with logic, and Projecting blame.
Red Flags
High-severity indicators: silencing dissent, coordinated messaging, or weaponizing identity to shut down debate.
"“All these goals help him to progress and cement his position as the hegemon in the Middle East,” he said, arguing that the agreement helps resolve two significant obstacles to claiming leadership of the Muslim world, including not being a descendant of the Prophet Muhammad or an Arab."
Techniques Found(7)
Specific propaganda techniques identified using the SemEval-2023 academic taxonomy of 23 techniques across 6 categories.
"Turkey’s mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is a step toward the ultimate ambition of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: to make Ankara a powerhouse across the entire territory of the old Ottoman Empire."
The phrase 'ultimate ambition' and 'entire territory of the old Ottoman Empire' are emotionally charged and frame Erdogan's geopolitical moves as driven by an imperialistic, rather than a strategic or defensive, goal. This sets a negative tone by implying an aggressive, historical expansionist motive.
"The pact will help counterbalance Iranian regional power, but it will also position Turkey as the military and political leader of a “Sunni ring of fire,” advancing the Turkish president’s vision of a modern Ottoman sphere of influence, according to Chaim Silberstein, the chairman of the Jerusalem Center for Applied Policy (JCAP)."
The phrase 'Sunni ring of fire' is highly evocative and implies a volatile, dangerous, and potentially aggressive encirclement. While attributed to JCAP, its inclusion without critical examination by the author functions to create a sense of alarm regarding Turkey's growing influence.
"Exposing Erdogan’s Plan for Palestine"
The word 'Exposing' implies that there is a hidden, nefarious, or deceptive plan that is being revealed. It frames JCAP's report as uncovering something sinister, rather than simply analyzing a strategy, thereby injecting an emotional charge.
"JCAP argues that this Ottoman narrative allows Turkey to present itself as a “civilization heir with a unique, inherited claim to Jerusalem — one that no Arab state, and certainly no Western power, can contest on equal terms.” The report says this framing “converts a geopolitical ambition into an inheritance.”"
The phrase 'converts a geopolitical ambition into an inheritance' suggests a manipulative re-framing of a political objective into a natural, rightful claim, implying a deceptive strategy rather than a legitimate historical or cultural connection.
"In JCAP’s “Turkey’s Phased Plan to Conquer Jerusalem” report, it describes the series of steps Turkey could take to establish itself as the patron of Jerusalem and its holy sites."
The word 'Conquer' is a strong, militaristic term that implies an aggressive takeover rather than diplomatic influence or protection. This phrasing frames Turkey's actions in a hostile light, even when discussing becoming a 'patron'.
"The report says the common thread running through Erdogan’s regional moves is the goal of eventually entering Jerusalem as its “patron and overlord.”"
The term 'overlord' carries strong negative connotations of absolute, domineering rule and subjugation. It implies a desire for control that goes beyond a supportive 'patron' role, painting Erdogan's intentions as authoritarian and imperialistic.
"But the prospect of a more powerful Turkey also comes with concerns about the man directing it. Erdogan has a long record of human rights abuses, Islamist politics, and hostility toward the West."
The descriptions 'human rights abuses,' 'Islamist politics,' and 'hostility toward the West' are presented as established facts contributing to 'concerns,' framing Erdogan in a decidedly negative light without deeper context or nuance within the sentence.